Running Commentary on the SP Movements., page-11574

I will give you my personal odds of what I predict and try to save you some time. I would say a month ago it would've been around 80-90% chance of TO within 6 months, now I would say its more around 60-70%, still most likely outcome in my eyes, and large majority still appear to expect that will be the final outcome, but I think recent ML tweets have given higher odds to AVZ taking this a bit further. Hard to say what true and whats the just trying to work a higher TO offer.

Still I don't there there has been an official statement either way (correct me if I am wrong), just a lot of reading between the lines that hints strongly at AVZ targeting a TO.

And yes those numbers are pulled out of the air, no science to them, but probably more accurate than your thumbs up method . Just my honest semi-informed opinion.