Some seriously uneducated posts by some non-holders in this thread. Now 1.5% Li20 translates to 18,7% of the pegmatite is spodumene which is very good compared to PLS, AJM, BGS etc etc, meaning less waste. The expectation here for AVZ is that holes 1 and 2 and hole 7 will grade 1.5% and that in itself will be able to accommodate a 10 mtpa ore feed operation for 20 years (see below embedded posts). Spodumene has a theoretical Li2O content of 8.03%, meaning Li grade of 3.7%.
Secondly, after looking at the issue of freight in the other thread, scale and size is going to be fundamental to economies of scale which reduce unit costs here for AVZ. Or another way to put it is if cannot get AVZ to produce 5mtpa to 10 mtpa of ore feed then the TO price will not be high as I posted in the past on these threads - see Post #:
26548026 and Post #:
29971739
Note the Ivanhoe example used in the Freight thread if specifically translated to AVZ is the equivalent of a 2.5 mtpa ore feed operation hence why scale is important. (i.e At 1.5% Li20 you need 5 tonnes of ore to get to 6% spodumene concentrate at 80% recovery, meaning a 2.5mtpa facility gives you 500,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate (and in the Ivanhoe example they were producing 500,000 tonnes of zinc btw from recollection)
Scale and size and the tin credits are a key to viability here for AVZ and I think the JORC will show we can accommodate the required 5mtpa - 10 mtpa ore feed because EV/lithium demand will be there for takeup IMO. See Post #:
30611818 and Post #:
30119771. Some of the non-holders here are saying a, b, and c, and then contradict themselves by then saying start small as it doesn't make sense from a project viability sense. And note hard rock is prefered in the growing lithium hydroxide market hence why I see a future for all hard rock plays, provided they have the resource and good cost structures hence why I don't buy into these bouts on my deposit is better than yours. The lithium demand is there for hard rock as I previously posted - Post #:
30437821
Finally, I was going to post in the Freight thread, but in terms of transport costs issue when you realise that the Ivanhoe treatment and refining costs are less than transport costs there it is obvious for Ivanhoe that transport costs are quite high there. I concur with some posters that transport costs are some $250 per tonne there for Ivanhoe btw based on the information provided and if they translated to AVZ then scale and size will matter here (especially if we also incur a road freight cost as well).
However I do
not think you can use the Ivanhoe example as that from my reading included some costs associated with building sidings etc however obviously scale and size as well as tin and tantulum credits to offset transport costs for AVZ will reduce the transport costs (through credits) as will exporting carbonate or hydroxide against 6% grade spodumene. Note: at 5mpta will AVZ will be producing twice the concentrate tonnage assuming AVZ grades 1.5% Li20 than Invanhoe example (noting Ivanhoe is zinc).
The point of me saying this is the PFS for AVZ will give the options relating to exports and costs associated with transport, but economies of scale and cost reductions and tin/tantulum credits too me require AVZ to be able to start up at around 5 mtpa rising to 10 mtpa ore feed and I suspect the market will be able to accommodate that. If not TO price will be much lower than people are anticipating here. Obviously if AVZ produce carbonate/hydroxide (and that will be up to the new owners in a TO I presume noting it would appear the power issues in the area are been addressed) then economics for AVZ further improves btw.
AVZ needs to understand how the inpts to a bankable study may look like to leverage the best TO price for SH if they decide not to mine it themselves but scale and size will matter.
All IMO
