AVZ (ASX) Running Commentary on the SP Movements.

Originally posted by densamer ↑

I agree! My preference is for the company to drill more too.

It all comes down to individual investment goals. Some people want to make a quick buck and move on before there's any further delay with the election scheduled for next year whereas I want them to drill more to increase bidding competition and to further investigate splitting the mine as @Scarpa and others have suggested before on this forum.

IMO the current market valuation is based on big discount (DRC fear of untravelled Aussies and the transport/infrastructure uncertainty) to peers with single mines. People forget that AVZ really holds 60% of 2 x 500MT. If they can sell the two-mine proposition to the market, surely the value doubles? People are so simple, I bet splitting the tenement in 2 would do it.

All musings - they could have already sold it

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Originally posted by nytryda ↑

I never said anything about someone paying $1B for it. PLS nearly hit that mark with no DFS, no offtakes and 2 years out from production. The hype will pave the way!

In fact, it was infill drilling and extensional drilling with the highest hits around 50m @ 1.9% Li2o and an exploration target of around 130-150Mt @ 1.2-1.5% Li2o that sent the SP to rocket up to $0.80+.

Now I wonder what infill drilling in the next quarter will do for AVZ when you're potentially getting consistent 200m+ hits @ 1.5% Li2o

Oh and don't forget the 1.2Bt exploration target with talks of it being up to 2Bt. Yes, that's billion...not million.

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I guess at some point someone will need to do some drills around holes 3 - 6 to see whether the tin credits can be used to expand the mine to encompass and bring together the two mine theory with the rest of the resource together if possible, but that is way down the track so will be interesting whether AVZ will seek to assess this aspect in the upcoming drilling campaign here itself. Any resource estimate above 1 billion tonnes therefore IMO within a JORC code framework would need to be based on how the tin credits can join the two mine theory here IMO. Anyway, the last two weeks action not unexpected IMO given the Director selling and short termers seeing the length of time to the next drill bit.

Personally, assuming the 50 metre to 100 metre spacings in the next drilling campaign to identify a measured and indicated resource in line with the JORC code provides similar results, any further holes around the current drills in hole 1, 2 and 7, IMO will end up IMO showing a resource three times larger than PLS on each minearound hles 1 and 2 and holes 7. See Post #: 27170553

For the record before hole 2 and 7 results were released I stated on this forum that I expected both those holes to have a similar result to hole 2, as I felt the weathering in the tenements was consistent with a two mine theory after holes 3 - 6 were released - Post #: 26782377 and 26676714.

Whilst FA remains sound here, TA wise I'll just say I have no clue there and just a guess but FA wise I would be expecting a takeover price way north (especially if it is done later on in the next drilling camapaign) of this but it is a question of how long people want to wait. People need to make their own call where they see this going short term and long term. Don't listen to people like me about whether to hold or not - you need to make your own decisions as many here are essentially free carried, even those like me who have taken profit along the way. If a takeover offer is not made soon then it will boil down to drill results and if teh results are not as expected then there may be no takeover at all, but I am expecting the results to be good btw especially around holes 1 and 2 and 7,

I expect the next stage is to identify the JORC using the $13 million provided by the Chinese backer in August. With first drill anticipated in October, I presume results will start coming out December with JORC finalisation 2nd quarter 2018. People need to decide whether to wait, unless of course taken over before then. Obviously if the drill results around hole 1 and 2 and 7 come in as expected well the SP will trend north and the takeover price will be higher but what that is is anyone's guess.

All IMO