AVZ (ASX) Running Commentary on the SP Movements.

Originally posted by pcaruso ↑

I have sympathy with the frustrations expressed on this forum. However, I have no reason to be pessimistic and I'll explain myself.

1. Agree, this company is too small to do justice to the resource - it really needs big players on board. As I've said before, it is my view Klaus just wanted to re-affirm the resource with a couple of drill results and then have the company bought out. Enter Huayou! I'm convinced TO talks were had but once Airguide was appointed strategic advisor, AVZ was of the view that the best value for shareholders was to prove the resource via JORC (as opposed to a quick and cheap TO) and to involve other players/players with key competencies in mining, lithium in particular, hence BNBT's involvement to develop the resource. In the meanwhile, we've all been sitting back expecting announcements, read about easter eggs, hot cross buns, parties at the grassy knoll and NOTHING from the company. Causes frustration and raises concerns.

2. The lack of assay results/drilling update does not necessarily mean bad news. It just means it's probably taking longer the expected due to bottlenecks and the machinations/processes of getting the content to the labs. I've owned enough of these type of explorers to tell you with 100% confidence that the lack of news means ZIP (either way).

3. This week's announcement of the Chairman of BTBN is most interesting and what I regard as TELLING! I'm from a company secretary background and continuous disclosure is my bread and butter. My initial reaction to the announcement was a case of "so what" as in my former roles we would never have disclosed this sort of information to the market. Unless it was preparing the market for a major announcement of a transaction! In other words, read between the lines. That's where I believe AVZ is. BTBN will emerge as a key player in AVZ's and Manono's development. It might take a few weeks to get the details but to simply advise the market the Chairman was visiting Manono is almost a waste of an announcement unless something meatier was the follow. WE ARE BEING CONDITIONED for the next major announcement (in addition to a drilling update) which will be significant and material!

4. The fact that Airguide and Klaus are getting more involved with other explorers suggests to me that AVZ will be in different hands shortly and their job is largely done (though they will remain significant shareholders).

Again, I understand your frustration and the frustration of many on this forum but I still remain very optimistic the tide will turn very soon. The perception management has been dragging the chain is probably farther from the truth though it appears this way I think the ball game game changed in Oct/Nov after Airguide was appointed strategic advisor and I remain convinced the ball game is now to get the best skills at Manono to develop this tremendous resource as a matter of urgency, which points to a JV. A final point, we also have stacks of Tin and this commodity is in hot demand at the moment with shortages expected to continue for another 5-7 years. Nowhere have we factored in the Tin component to valuations or discussion. Hopefully the assay/drilling results will tell us more.

Have a great weekend, relax, enjoy your friends and family and next week is another week.

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Great contribution.

Only one thing to add: BNBT doesn't have mining experience. As I see it, this is the value chain: AVZ/Huayou --> Tinci --> BNBT.

I don't know if we get a AVZ/BNBT J-V. Somehow this doesn't make sense to me.

Huayou has mining experience in the DRC. I'd prefer a proper J-V with Huayou to develop the mine, financially backed by binding deals with Tinci (carbonate plant?) and BNBT (buying stuff from carbonate plant for their batteries?).

I don't think everything will be clear next week. But I could be wrong...

Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd was founded in June 2000 and listed on the SME Board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2014 (Stock abbreviation: TINCI Material. Stock code: 002709). With a market capitalisation of RMB 14.9 Billion (USD 2.35 Billion), the company is a national high-tech enterprise and specializes in R&D, manufacture, application and marketing for lithium-ion battery materials and its upstream raw materials.