your thinking they could initially bail if a JV eventualtes and...

your thinking they could initially bail if a JV eventualtes and they then miss their sugar hit. You are possibly underestimating 3 direct factors that could change that.
1/ Many more will be rushing in and whilst KDR wasnt a consideration for it, many here are warm to it and many others would board for it.
2/ People who watched KDR give away half for 50 mil (plus) initiatlly seen it as a gift to SQM and KDR didnt seem to have a direction prior and were viewed as stumbling or soon too.
3/ Investors have seen the outcome from KDR and may well not allow the SP on AVZ to follow the KDR path.

I feel these points overshadow your possibilities enormously. there will also be many not wanting the trade but to keep their current or soon to be CGT discounts of 50%. Many SH's own millions of shares here and we are not wanting to a few 100k extra in tax. i dont play with trades that make me a few K as its just untidy in the books and complicates it. just me maybe, i like to keep transactions large and occasional, and hopefully very profitable.

i wish you would change your sign off, its becoming irritating. Just add DYOR or something. We know your sign off is just fantasy thinking by you that someone could misconstrue your posts as valued or advise.