AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Running Commentary on the SP Movements., page-7824

  1. 1,751 Posts.
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    Tick tock, the DRC is still an effervescent lithium-cobalt rainbow and China Inc is still salivating. Game face on this week, plus 30c IMO. Bye …

    Updated peer EV/Resource spodumene comparisons/notes below for the interested only:

    TAW 23/11/2017
    Mcap $194M @ 38.5c fps (504M fps, ~$8.8M cash, $12.5M debt payable from lithium concentrate funds received – 15% per shipment)
    Bald Hill (TAW 50%) Ind/Inf resource 18.9Mt @ 1.18% Li2O 149ppm Ta2O5
    TAW value per resource Li2O tonne (50% of ~0.223Mt contained Li2O) = ~$1,739t

    AJM 23/11/2017
    Mcap $674M @ 38.5c fps (1751M fps, ~$39M cash, $140M debt facility)
    Pilgangoora Ind/Inf resource 44.0Mt @ 1.00% Li2O (Prob reserve 34.2Mt @ 1.04% Li2O)
    AJM value per resource Li2O tonne (~441,000t contained Li2O) = ~$1,528t

    PLS 23/11/2017
    Mcap $1,629M @ 96.5c fps (1616M fps, ~$107M cash, $127.5M debt facility)
    Pilgangoora Ind/Inf resource 156.3Mt @ 1.25% Li2O (Prob reserve 69.8Mt @ 1.26% Li2O)
    PLS value per resource Li2O tonne (~1.95Mt contained Li2O) = ~$835t

    KDR 23/11/2017
    Mcap $467M @ $1.33c fps (350M fps, $3M cash, $106M funds for mine development + $40M cash
    upon SQM deal being executed/conditions ticked, no debt)
    Mt Holland Li (KDR 50%) Ind/Inf resource 128Mt @ 1.44% Li2O + Au (KDR 100%) Ind/Inf resource >1M ozs
    KDR value per resource Li2O tonne (50% of ~1.84Mt contained Li2O) = ~$507t

    BGS 23/11/2017
    Mcap $88M @ 45c fps (196M fps, $6M cash)
    Goulamina - Mali Ind/Inf resource 32.9Mt @ 1.37% Li2O
    BGS EV value per resource Li2O tonne (90% of ~451,000t contained Li2O) = ~$216t

    PSC 23/11/2017
    Mcap $84.5M @ 5.3c fps (1594M fps, $4.7M cash)
    Arcadia, Zimbabwe Meas/Ind/Inf resource 72.7Mt @ 1.11% Li2O
    PSC EV value per resource Li2O tonne (70% of ~807,000t contained Li2O) = ~$149t


    AVZ 23/11/2017
    Mcap $427M @ 24c fps (1,779M fps, $13M cash, no offtake agreements)
    Manono - DRC (KDR 60%) B of Env lower resource 656Mt @ 1.5% Li2O
    AVZ EV value per resource Li2O tonne (60% of ~9.8Mt contained Li2O) = ~$72t current


    Based on a peer on peer resource sector EV comparison AVZ is still extraordinarily undervalued

    On a peer on peer sector average EV value @ $829t Li2O = $4,874M mcap or $2.74 per share potential without a country origin discount within the March 2018 qtr or when a JORC compliant resource is released to the market. If only, but even at a ruthless combined 90% origin of country discount/current non JORC resource status to the above calculated market cap, the share price would still be 27c, 80% 54c etc etc .

    Again, to hammer the obvious, either some of the Australian peers are overvalued on a simplistic EV/resource tonne value or AVZ and its African peer are still screaming buys. I like spods of screaming buys.

    Big week for all shareholders, action to come this AGM week and in particular post resolution ratifications on Wednesday or even before. Bye …

    You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right. ~ Warren Buffett


    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    “Given the continued support from drill intercepts to date, we have also upgraded our exploration target for the entire project, to be between 1Bt to 1.2Bt of 1.25% to 1.5% Li2O, including between 300 and 400MT of 1.25% to 1.5% Li2O for the Roche Dure pegmatite alone”. … Mr. Klaus Eckhof, AVZ Executive Chairman, 12th September 2017.
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