Running Commentary on the SP Movements., page-9303

@Freehold

Sorry for late response to your post from 6/12/17 Freehold.

I hear what you are saying, and the bottom line is that in a portfolio sense - if not in absolute $ - I am significantly invested in AVZ.

What you say about the pre-GFC debt concerns and subsequent market behavior is all factually correct.

However, the ever increasing indebtedness or money printing is unsustainable - it simply can not go on forever. Once this global debt bubble unwinds, there will be few places to hide - i.e. few asset classes that will be protected from the downturn, which simply given the magnitude of the debt MIGHT be more severe and last longer than anything we have seen before.

Again, your Rockefeller observations are pertinent and lithium investments could very well emerge as the new gold, oil and uranium of the future with unimaginable wealth created in its mining and related industries.

However, what I am weary of is the potentially long period of time where the market behaves irrationally once a serious downturn starts. I have seen it happen when the first cracks in the mining boom started showing.

Sure, if you have a long breath - i.e. you are RICH - you can probably afford to be patient and wait for your moment to pounce on the opportunities such a scenario inevitably presents. But if you are operating on the opposite end of the spectrum - i.e. you are LESS rich - then it will be a lot harder to "be patient" and just let the downturn blow over.

I am concerned for my fellow investors who in the euphoria of a lithium boom might lose sight of the fact that in a market downturn there might be very different views on what constitutes the "fundamentals" of a stock as opposed to in the boom times.