FWIW, my previous post was not based on any ill-will towards you and that post went on to talk about some of my views around what the data could look mining wise. And if you do look at my posts on AVZ, I until today actually haven't even replied to any of your posts (even posts where you were quoting me for your own arguments with other posters).
I prefer when you post your views in the way of your latest post (around the issues you may see for AVZ rather than who holds what shares) because I do share some of your views in this recent post, particularly the drill bit will determine the future of AVZ (not ML's tweets) and that a move to mining may involve some dilution. Infact one of ML's posts of today I have treated with a healthy level of skeptism where he says "Major #Chinese groups at site +$offers" in particular because that gives a perception an offer has been made of some type (and I don't think that is what ML means by the way) because if so that is pretty close to been confidential IMO. Offers could mean anything from TO, to offtake agreements, to mining with a JV partner, to blowing ones trumpet, to simply pub talk between in a drunken stupor IMO.
IMO if we do get to a decent JORC in line with what I anticipate and were we to mine the deposit either as part of a JV arrangement or ourselves, IMO any dilution would be done at a price north of here (which then reduces such dilution) but that would depend on how good the JORC is and whether the market can accommodate say a 10 mtpa ore feed operation (possibly starting at 5 mtpa and ramping up over say three years to 10 mtpa). I see it unlikely that AVZ will mine the deposit itself, that is outside a JV arrangement, because it doesn't appear to me that AVZ has the capacity/experience/technical know how to mine it itself (but then again you pay labour well enough and I am sure it could get that experience if it needs to to enter mining).
In terms of a TO should that happen, I agree that retail SH will become passengers in a TO, but we still need to be mindful that I would expect a (most likely Chinese) takeover to want 100% of the AVZ shares (and hence delisting of AVZ from the ASX) so if the TO price is not good then I wouldn't expect the TO participant to get 100%. That is because there are some large retail investors who combined own more than 10% of the stock and therefore the compulsory takeover provisions (i.e. when you get over 90% of the shares in an entity you can compulsory acquire the remaining shares) cannot be triggered by the entity doing the TO on those SH not willing to sell in the ASX. Hence I do expect a good TO price, assuming a good JORC, or road to a good JORC, been established at TO.
All the above is pure speculation as we need to establish a JORC first. Anyway all good and if you continue to post, lets do it on what we see as AVZ's strength and weaknesses etc etc and any potential issues we see to harness meaningful debate on these threads.
I'll shut up now. All IMO IMO
