Share
326 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 72
clock Created with Sketch.
07/09/18
22:29
Share
Originally posted by ericson
↑
Hi Brass,
Turns out I was about right.
My opinion is as follows but I will say that level 2 is a hobby horse of mine and over the years I have built software to analyse, look for trading patterns and auto-trade ...
Based on all my observations I think the SP is being controlled and not just because of evidence of bots at work. I believe the control of SP is very well managed and co-ordinated with other price affecting factors - fear, sentiment, speculations, spin ...
I'll give you just one example (think I've alluded to it before). There was some positive news from AVZ that was being awaited. At open, the buyers peppered in and were buying from the ask. The flow was strong and continued for a good while. As the ask size depleted (at around 10.5 I think it was) the "normal" situation is that sellers (when realising this) back off and let SP pip up and feed their sells into each rising sell price echelon, thereby maximising their sell price ... sometimes clever sellers keep buying the small residual sell orders to keep the march upwards going.
But ... I noticed that as soon as the sells depleted they were topped up in a "just in time, just enough fashion" relentlessly for a long period of time. The message : "this aint going up at any cost and you better all realise it". No scientifically proven I know but as I've said I done this for a long time and its always been because someone (shorters, market makers, others ...) don't want the price to rise. I know some big sellers manage the trade in blocks but there is no advantage to a genuine seller to blunt or dull the buying fury ... if you have more to sell then feed them in at the next pip upwards and keep doing so to get your best price!!!
If you accept that the price is being held down then why not smash it down to 9,8 and below you might ask - its so easily done at this stage??? I don't know but to me it appears that 8.8-10 is a range the controlling party is happy with now. To go lower would maybe bring in speculative retail trades or accumulation volumes by other parties which could start to drain a trading float and/or threaten the holder profiles. This could be even worse (for a capper) if a lower price triggered new (and heavy) speculative interest in the face of continuing good NRs and ever increasing profile of Lithium resource and set against a Li ore quality revolution and an imminent uptrend in Li prices , Li significance and Li interest (those smokey cities).
And just one thing but absolutely tying in with the above capper theory; why oh why have would an MOU partner want secrecy??? Because they don't want their interest to be known and be built into the SP which they know they will be having to deal with some time sooner or later.
AIMHO
PS I hope capper doesn't crash the SP to below 8.5 in an attempt to disprove this conjecture!
Expand
Thanks for responding ericson. I thought I had a fair idea of what you were thinking when you posted about the SP remaining flat so was intrigued to see if I was on the right track. I had not given much thought as to why the silence of the MOU partner though and your opinion on that makes sense to me too. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say your observations and opinions on this thread are valued and I always Iook forward to your posts. Stick around mate.