AVZ (ASX) Running discussion on SP

Originally posted by Dr_Manhattan ↑

Thanks for that.

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March was a big month last year, so will be interesting how it goes this year after the massive Jan and Feb sale increases. Looks like US sales are significantly up in March over last year, so that bodes well for global sales. Tesla's model 3 is starting to ramp up production finally with 1875, 2485, 3820 sold (delivered) over Jan, Feb and March. Seems Elon sleeping in his factory is helping!

Things will only accelerate as battery cost keep coming down. Here is a pretty conservative estimate by Bloomberg.

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UBS is more optimistic. After a break down of EV costs, it estimated 'Consumer cost of ownership (TCO) parity vis-à-vis combustion engine (ICE) cars can be reached from 2018 (first in EU), creating an inflection point for demand. We raise our 2025E EV sales by ~50% to 14.2m, or 14% of global car sales.'

http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf

Note that UBS has since further increased their prediction of EV sales.

'Analysts for the Swiss investment bank predicted 16.5 million electric vehicles would be sold in 2025, up from their previous estimates of 14.2 million units. The new figure represents a 16 per cent global penetration of electric vehicles by 2025.'

https://thewest.com.au/business/aut...-lithium-miners-in-drivers-seat-ng-b88683067z

16% global EV sales at 70,000LCE per 1% increase according to Morgan Stanley = 1.1MT LCE per year need for lithium just from EV's alone (today's output around 0.23MT LCE).

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Thanks Dr, but for clarity those two UBS forecasts are from May 17 and Dec 17 respectively so not new news.

Although with all this alternating reports on Lithium around it is good to look back at the facts: more EVs = more lithium, 5x more by 2025 based on UBS's reports. So thanks for that.

Seems a little concerning no increase from Jan to Feb? Could be anomaly. Also interesting how seasonal EV sales are. Doing more EV sales in Jan and Feb than last year Jan and Feb, but less than all months in 2017 since May.