Typically a non-poster and holding, I am hoping someone on this forum may be able to assist with some of the questions below?
Assuming the DFS has started as indicated by management, what size processing plant is the DFS, ie. 2Mtpa, 5Mtpa, or 10Mtpa, haven’t found any information confirming size?
Assuming the 2Mtpa is progressing at DFS, what is the purpose of completing the 5Mtpa, or 10Mtpa, yes the NPV will be higher but so will the capital cost and complexity, and in the current funding/investment environment, what are the realistic expectation of funding a larger plant.
At US$150m for 2Mtpa this is nearly 2.5 times current market capital, and although the results for the 5 & 10 Mtpa is not released, the capital cost will be higher and likely many more multiples than current market capital.
Also hoping to get an update on the testwork...The 2Mtpa scoping study report indicates page 12, “The metallurgical test work and FFS is expected to take 6 months to complete and planned to be available by Q2 2019.”
How is the testwork program is progressing as it must be well underway. Likewise this also assumes that some decision on throughput size should have been completed as it would impact the testwork program?
On the same report it shows the DFS completed Q2 – 2019, slightly contradictory to metallurgical testwork program which is typically done in advance, ok lets assume that the testwork is nominally complete early Q2, that would provide say 3 months to complete the DFS by a consultant, seems short by typical industry norms
Would be good to understand the status of the metallurgical testwork program, and if we take the negative position that the lack of communication is due the testwork program not starting or pending release of 5&10Mtpa and apply the same nominal 3 quarters to complete the DFS, a plausible delay of the same duration would be expected at commencement of the testwork, pushing the DFS out to Q4 at best?
It would seem that there is a lack of a real plan that has been communicated to the market, who is AVZ, where are we going, how are we going to get there, when are we going to get there, who are the stakeholders, what are the risks/obstacles…
It seems a course correction is required that should be clearly articulated to the market
All IMO & DYOR
