'management have been stuffing around for 2 years with no meaningful results'
In some aspects I'd agree - particularly on the OT/JV/project finance front (though not entirely their fault and more on this as it comes to light), but I wouldn't say that there have been no meaningful results. If we cast our minds back to May 7, 2017 then;
*2 years ago AVZ had yet to commit to proceed with the Manono transaction
*2 years ago not a single hole had been drilled (either Diamond or RC) by AVZ
*2 years ago AVZ had yet to report any spectacular grades and intercepts at RD or CDL
*2 years ago there was no Independent review that confirmed the world class potential of Manono
*2 years ago there was no JORC compliant resource
*2 years ago AVZ could not confirm that Manono contained Lithium resources of 400mt @1.66%
*2 years ago AVZ could not confirm that it discovered the world's largest spodumene deposit
*2 years ago AVZ's exploration target was 500mt @1.5% (now 1.2 billion tonnes with the same grade)
*2 years ago the DRC and WA Supreme Courts were yet to dismiss 'other claims' for the Manono project
*2 years ago there were no MOUs in place
*2 years ago there were no Chinese cornerstone investors (as there are now with Huayou and Lithium Plus)
*2 years ago there was a Chairman on the board whos self-interests were not aligned with the rest of AVZ's shareholder base.
*2 years ago there were no preliminary Met Tests confirming the 'battery quality' mineralogy at Manono
*2 years ago there was no 2mtpa SS highlighting the base case economic potential of Manono
*2 years ago there was no preliminary Transport Study nor an update highlighting material cost savings.
*2 years ago the thought of the DRC holding a relatively peaceful democratic election and electing a people's democratic leader was a pipedream for most.
*And 2 years ago (frustrating as it is) the SP was trading at 4.5c i.e. ~10% higher than it is today
But there's no need for despair just yet IMO. The Lithium industry continues to grow exponentially and a rising tide will eventually lift all boats. And just as it did in late 2017, the cream will rise to the top during 'Lithium Boom 2.0' and those development projects with proven Tier 1 'battery quality' resources and a economically sound fundamental outlook will skyrocket IMO. After all, there have been so many positives for the Lithium/EV sector in 2 short years, and below are just a few of the many that deserve a special mention: -
*2 years ago EV sales were less than 800k units p.a. or < 1% of global automotive sales. Many were hybrids i.e. with minimal kWh capacity per EV battery
* 2-5 years ago OPEC, Morgan Stanley & Bloomberg predicted 2018 EV sales to be 200k units, 400k units and 1 million units respectively. The actual no. for 2018 came in at 2.1 million units.
Note: This year the world is on track to deliver 3m units or > 3% of global sales (beating all analyst expectations once again) and the vast majority of these will be full BEVs with an estimated battery size average of >40kWh (up from 33kWh avg. in 2018 according to my Chinese source).
*2 years ago there was no mainstream EV solution to rival your typical ICE in terms of price and range (enter the Tesla Model 3 in 2018 - a complete gamechanger for the auto sector for many reasons)
*2 years ago it was predicted that EVs would achieve cost parity with ICEs by 2025-2028. That timeframe has recently been revised to 2021-2023, however if you look at the total cost of ownership of a mid-range sedan, then the Tesla Model 3 for example is already cheaper than a Toyota Camry. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/1...per-than-toyota-camry-ark-analysis-concludes/
*2 years ago none of the major autos had committed to an EV / Li-Ion future. Now look at recent announcements from Volkswagon, Daimler, BMW, Ford, GM, Nissan, Renault, Hyundai/Kia etc as they rapidly invest and scale up their EV development before they lose market share to the likes of Tesla, BYD, BAIC, SAIC etc.
*2 years ago, Level 4-5 autonomous driving / robotaxis / TaaS was nothing but a futuristic pipe dream for most. Now these are fast becoming reality.
*2 years ago the cost of an average Li-ion automative battery was $288 per kWh (around double the expected average cost for 2019 and a third of the expected average cost in 1 - 3 years time).
*2 years ago the average battery cost for a medium sized vehicle represented over 50% of the retail price, now it is @33% of the price and dropping.
*2 years ago there were 4 Gigafactories in the pipeline, now there are 76 and counting
*2 years ago Albermarle hadn't purchased 50% of Wodgina, and hadn't valued the project at US$1.15 billion (in-ground value at US$8.90 p/t).
*2 years ago Lithium wasn't even a blip on Wesfarmers' radar, let alone a 50% bid for KDR at A$776m or A$7.37 p/t (a bid that both Canaccord and JP Morgan say fundamentally undervalues the miner)
GLTA
Cheers
Elpha
p.s. my spidey senses are tingling tonight, wonder if there's an announcement or two on the way
(20min delay)