Running discussion on SP, page-20111

The 12million figure in the article super yacht referenced is the figure at 31 march 2019 - in the quarterly. But we are nearly at the end of June when another cash position is assessed though not publicly reported to quite a bit later. But we know AVZ were forecasting spending of 4.77 million for the then coming quarter (at 31 march) (so most of that will have been spent by now if things went to plan) leaving around 7.59 million in cash. That's less than two quarters worth of spending at a 4.77 million rate.

Cash = time. AVZ cannot let the cash get down below some arbitrary safety buffer (some multiple of quarterly spend I'd suggest) (They can't risk trading insolvent or even the threat or appearance of that).

Meanwhile we know the road to Manono (route 617) is not going to be refurbed even if it is on time before near the end of this year. So no all weather road to show an offtaker before then.

The devil is going to be in the costing detail (what AVZ is spending) but to me @8horse I think a cash raise (for safety sake - can't risk insolvency or running too low) looks very likely and November (your time) is probably too early to have a road report and might be too late for the safety buffer.

You disagree @8horse ?