There’s a world of difference between your boorishness and...

There’s a world of difference between your boorishness and Scarpa’s criticism. Maybe try his VB to get the same logically coherent results whilst respecting your fellow retail readers like Scarpa does?

For example, I as one reader would be more receptive if you were less vexatious in your style and made reference to all available information relevant to pit dewatering.

Easy stuff, like, the May 17 announcement that clearly shows several assessments needed to be done since 2018. In other words, it’s not as simple as ordering a simple pump as you vex it to be.

Why not contact the company and find out the rate of flow and the anticipated timeline considering all variables? Anyone as concerned as you knowing hydraulics would want to know a key data point : what’s the rate of flow over next 4 months variables included? You haven’t asked. But that’s not your concern, your concern is Monday liquidity trading.

When you call Pin them down if you can.

It’s not clear when pumping commenced except after May 17...and before the GRE announcements?

We see a statement: “dewatering has commenced” they don’t say when. I think it’s better to know at what rate over next 4 months.

We know there is trenching in place for gravity feeding and some local pumps before the big pump is in place. All in place as it appears now. Even so, back in May, they expected q1 2020 completion of DFS, but do have a buffer timeline to q2. Which brings us to the main point, money and your subsequent ‘gothics’.

I don’t agree with @Scarpa that the market thinks AVZ won’t get to mine before 2025 is reflected in the SP.

I think it’s more a case of waiting to see if AVZ gets project funding and I see that as NOT necessarily dependant on a dewatering to DFS completion timeline. Because

That project funding is more near term possibly this qtr is indicated by the urgency and value placed on acquiring the respective project interests from the joint venture partners but delayed by a Congolese election and its restructuring. (So there is a “deliverable” dependant on bureaucrat-others).

If Huayou thought AVZ was being delayed like you think and risking another CR, why would they step up, make comment on manono’s premium product after nearly two years and become a strategic partner non-exclusively?

Huayou sees the light arriving for funding before DFS is my logical inference. They know Cong they know Kabila they are on AVZ board they see the moves to give AVZ project %s (again of AVZ was not trusted why sell to AVZ?) that are also tied to project components like hydropower and roads and chose to step up at this time when things look slow or even harder. It wasn’t long ago Huayou was heavily criticised for its absence (there are many theories as to why).

So I think whilst you might be right AVZ is ‘under the pump’ with dewatering delays, we also don’t know the rate of any delay btw — and there’s still 4.5 months to pump before December heavy rainfall hits. So in my view taking all into account you are wrong in thinking all hinges on that dewatering completion event. And Scarpa hinted that there are alternatives. The company itself highlighted to complete phase 2 of DFS geotechnical studies

“...that some of this data may also be collected from the new diamond drill core located in Perth under the supervision of Middindi.”

It remains to be ascertained how much if at all the DFS timeline is affected.

As above, I think your underlying positive concern that Scarpa takes away as a point to analyse with what’s available publicly is bolted on the assumption that everything especially finance is dependant on completion of dewatering to DFS. That’s not necessarily true if you consider the confidence that already exists in the project metrics and JV partner % transfer movement.

In fact, phases of the DFS have been ticked off already, there are just important formalities to bring it together and that depends less on a geologist now, with Bourguignon as project manager working with GRE.

A vital aspect for financing is also what AVZ says is vital, the metallurgical testwork currently undertaken at the Nagrom lab.

“This metallurgical work programme is expected to not only inform the plant design but also yield data vital to negotiations with potential offtake partners and financiers for the Manono Lithium and Tin Project.” announcement May 17, 2019

It’s highly possible to realise funding earlier if you have a confident investor that wants to be the ‘early worm’ before DFS creates a ripe environment for many to bid.

I see the following as critical for financing in a pre-DFS completion stage scenario (AVZ have used that adjective for project % and financing):

1. with some intermediate key MET test results,

2. AVZ Power land/asset acquisitions (Guce registration, Africa Intel article)

3. the 10-20 %s from project partners,

4. confirmation from new provincial governor of Tanganyika Zoe Kabila of 5yr tax concessions or similar and any other regional development funding,

5. Huayou already confident on a premium product.

6. Own due diligence in risk/reward assessment

As Deboss noted, looking at the project wholistically, you see how aspects are dependent on other aspects not occluded as a single item.

To reiterate:

I appreciate as one reader here your knowledge on hydraulics to point out the possibility of a delayed timeline due, BUT, you don’t do it logically enough for it not to seem as a simple negative ramp with screenshots as pendants for your halloween party.

For example it would help to convince readers here of your genuine angelic concern if you added a screenshot or excerpts of a page in this announcement May 17, 2019 that indicates planning in 2018 and very dependant on impact assessments but no one takes that seriously because it’s not in Australia? May be the Congolese do care about impact assessments for a brownfield, even if not as tight, as a WA type jurisdiction.

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4A%2B8zBCZoeFjke92GA%3D%3D

The May 17, URL source link identifies impact assessments necessary since late 2018, it’s not as simple as order pumps, get permits, prepare grounds etc

Whereas Scarpa at least considers the possible ramifications of a delay on what tasks need to be done with the pit, and leaves open the possibility of alternatives with GRE, you don’t.

My bet is someone is going to look like the biggest clown this QTR when the JV partners execute signing and the reason for HuaYou stepping up bright eyed and bushy tailed is clear to all and that clown won’t be AVZ