Morning all,
To all shareholders who continue to publicly criticise (if not defame) NF and are basing their negative sentiment for AVZ on missed timelines and a former strategic advisor who apparently did no wrong but recently sold at least some of his holdings,
I ask that you seek to fully understand the motives and reasons behind the series of fortunate and unfortunate events that have transpired since 2017, before passing your judgement and mouthing off like a spoilt tennis brat in public.
And when you've finally calmed down i.e. following my suggestion that you may have slightly misunderstood the corporate history of AVZ (since 2017) and are possibly pointing the finger at the wrong person, then perhaps with a sense of humbleness you may decide to question your incessant beliefs and ask yourselves the following important and very relevant questions:
Question 1: What experience and success did AG have in terms of securing OT agreements i.e. prior to their appointment of 'strategic advisor to AVZ' back in 2017?
Question 2: Under who's leadership was AG appointed AVZ's strategic advisor?
Question 3: Who advised AVZ's management on the aggressive timetable to construction back in 2017, and for what purpose?
Question 4: Who was ultimately responsible for signing off on that timetable and which individuals would have most likely benefited from any TO during a time when Lithium Boom 1.0 was in full swing? i.e. prior to selling their shares and options.
Question 5: Who hasn't sold a single share during that time, nor since they were appointed MD in 2018?
Question 6: Why were AG unable to secure better terms for a CR in late 2018 / early 2019 than the 'price without a floor' deal that was put together last minute between management and Patto's? i.e. when it was apparent that AG had sufficient time and autonomy to secure a better deal for shareholders.
Question 7: Was the lapsing of AG's contract and the willingness by AVZ management to directly engage with Huayou (via a formal visit to China) the green light for Huayou to seek to enhance their relationship with AVZ by 'executing a strategic relationship agreement' thereafter?
Personally, I think NF and the current BOD made a sound decision to let AG's contract lapse, especially under existing non-performance based terms that clearly rewarded AG without success. Please note that I'm not claiming to know the entire story behind closed doors, however the above questions are IMO crucial to the debate as to whether AG's 'strategic' involvement with AVZ was a wise decision / choice to begin with.
The below tweet caught my attention over the weekend, and although it is my belief that the author revels in the attention he receives from his self-proclaimed
'Cynical and Cranky take on the ASX professional company manipulators', I do think in this case he has a valid point.
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Moving forward, my Balinese taxi driver had previously hinted that at least one of the
'non-exclusive strategic advisors' that AVZ has appointed in recent times was purposely head-hunted for their significant experience in securing OT agreements. He namedropped 'Glencore' and 'Mitsui' as part of this individual's long list of achievements. My question (but not really) is why would AVZ appoint this person now and well prior to the DFS?
SP movements and musings
With regards to AVZ's SP ebbs and flows driven by reasonable volumes, the good news is that for every AVZ seller there has always been a willing buyer ready and waiting. For example, ML's recent and rapid sell down of his options holding (in 250k lots) has resulted in a golden opportunity for some IMO, and at least 1.2m of those options that I know of passing into very safe hands (my hands).
Also, there has been mention of the increased holding of Ying Nominees in recent months (now a Top 6 shareholder).
My Balinese Taxi driver informs me that they're a WA based accounting firm who are 'firm' believers (pun intended
) in AVZ and their project at Manono. Accounting firms are typically good with figures, and so I'd opine that Ying Nominees have been quietly confident in their assessment of AVZ's recent 5mtpa SS, and the enormous opportunity at Manono within a exponentially growing market (by say 2021-2022).
Lastly, I wanted to talk a little about investor psychology.
It bemuses me how easily retail investors often get themselves in a panic when the SP of a popular stock that they own drops by a few pips, and all of a sudden a rush of nonsensical posts appear - with many citing re-hashed fundamental concerns (most of which have been known and repeated for months if not years) in an attempt to justify the day’s fall.
However, the more probable scenario is that someone has simply decided to sell a decent parcel of shares - possibly to pay for the purchase of another stock or to seek re-entry at lower price or to pay for personal items or expenses such as a tax bill, personal loan, holiday, rent or a new car. This sudden movement typically triggers a bit of senseless panic among the jittery which then triggers more senseless panic and stop losses, sometimes resulting in a 5-10% loss for the day. And it is then that they ask themselves
‘what was that all about?’ when perhaps it is about nothing much at all, other that someone decided to sell up for the reasons I’ve mentioned above.
SP manipulation (or the attempting of) is unfortunately as common as mud nowadays and often contributes to the day's outcome or result. However with regards to AVZ, the volume that brought about yesterday’s fall of ~6% was all said and done less than 10 million shares - not particularly big by AVZ’s lofty standards. However, that didn’t stop the scaremongering and nonsensical posts ranging from
'Ebola' to
'Manono will never be mined by AVZ' to
'ML is selling, therefore many tunes have changed and btw NF is a c**t.'
But hey tomorrow's a new day and I'm hearing that news re: Met Test results (apparently Nagrom were all
) is very close. Combine this with the 5mtpa SS, AVZ's increased equity stake in Manono, the recent appointment of GR Engineering (DFS) and NF's insightful interview from Frankfurt, and one can see that the missing pieces are slowly but surely coming together.
Thus any further forced selling of AVZ at this incredibly low valuation IMO (~$100m EV) prior to Met Test results may provide one of the best opportunities / entry points in H2 2019 (and indeed beyond) for savvy investors and traders alike.
GLTA
Cheers
Elpha
