Thanks for the clarification @Scarpa . Myself and I'm sure many others who read this forum appreciate your input (as always) and I agree with much of your post (hence the thumbs up).
Your assessment of where both LTR and AVZ are at in the mining cycle is spot on IMO, and I've highlighted where I believe LTR and AVZ sit in terms of the graph that you provided.
As we can see above, LTR is nearing the top of the speculation phase IMO with it's Market Cap close to $250m. And who knows, it may continue it's run to $300-$350m. However, when looking at the EV per resource tonne equation, it is getting well up there with the ASX producers who, as you say, have all raised and spent hundreds of millions of $ in CAPEX, and thus I don't see a whole lot of value for LTR ATM.
AVZ on the other hand, has endured the a 6 month 'orphan period' after speculators exited (from 37c) and since bottoming out in Feb (3.7c), and IMO has entered the feasibility and development stage of it's cycle - sparked by the impressive 5tmpa SS and the extraordinary volume that led to a rally to 9.6c thereafter.
Thus the above graph suggests that we are approx. 2.5 years from the 'startup' phase in the cycle which is broadly in line with company's stated timelines below.
As you suggest, the only issue that we may encounter i.e. slowing the above timeline considerably, is the preferred transport route and associated infrastructure that will be required. However, where there's a will there's a way and I'm confident that these issues will be largely sorted in time for commissioning. Furthermore, I'm sure the Chinese, the DRC government and its people would dearly love to reap the rewards of a Tier 1 quality Lithium producing mine at Manono, and as soon as feasibly possible.
Combine this anticipated willingness with the below projections for Li-ion batteries - and I firmly believe that AVZ is in the box seat (along with Greenbushes) leading into 2021. And that brings me to your main point and question as to whether Manono can be brought into production this side of 2025? I would have to say not only YES to that, but potentially 3-4 years sooner given that the below battery megatrend is about to take off in earnest (IMO) along with the subsequent demand for Tier 1 quality Lithium - sourced from the very best hard rock deposits of course.
Also consider this: In Electric Vehicle terms, Europe is going from 60 EV models in 2018 to 214 in 2021, China is enforcing its strict NEV policy, Tesla Gigafactory 3 will be in production by November, VW alone to launch 70 EV models by 2025 (but this will rise) and average battery prices will drop below $100/kWh by 2022-2023. Yet the majority of analysts are still forecasting linear growth or thereabouts this side of 2025, and ignoring not only the latest NEV and battery capacity trends but also the parabolic s-curve adoption rates we now see as standard for modern disruptive technologies.
Final thought: No-one believed back in 1900-1905 that the horse and cart would be almost completely replaced by ICE vehicles within 8-13 years, so using hindsight why would one think that the transition from ICEs to EVs will take any longer, especially in this 'I want everything now' modern day and age? Thus Tier 1 quality lithium IMO will see a demand surge much sooner and much greater than most analysts are currently forecasting.
(20min delay)