Running discussion on SP, page-21843

Great link in that post 8horse thanks.
nothing like competition to get Huayou Cobalt moving...
Manono could provide Europe all their lithium supply due to its quality and long mine life.
ALL IMO
perhaps HKTD will be collecting fares in Europe

https://www.transportenvironment.or...ons/2019_07_TE_electric_cars_report_final.pdf
5.1. Conclusions The analysis presented in this report shows that:
1. A decade after their initial adoption, the EU’s 2020/21 CO2 standards are finally starting to drive investment in electric vehicles in Europe. While not definitive, production forecasts available today show that carmakers are planning to produce over 4 million plug-in cars in 2025, of which around 60% are expected to be battery electric vehicles (BEV) and the rest plug-in hybrids (PHEVs);
2. The planned numbers actually exceed the minimum EV volumes needed to comply with the future 2025 CO2 standards, which T&E estimates to be 2.3 million EVs in 2025. This suggests that the European industry is eager to seize market share in the rapidly growing market for electric cars and to benefit as plug-in technology reaches cost parity with conventional cars by 2025. This ambition presents a great opportunity to accelerate the transition;
3. A third conclusion is that car manufacturers are putting their money and production effort into the clean technology of their choice, and it is electrification. Planned production of fuel cell vehicles in 2025 is negligible (9,000 units planned for 2025 vs 4 million EVs), and natural gas vehicles will remain a niche too, decreasing to 200k vehicles planned for 2025;
4. Most of the EV manufacturing in Europe is expected to be located in Germany, France, Spain and Italy (also the UK31), but parts of the future manufacturing are also expected to be located in central and eastern EU counties, notably Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary which rely on conventional car manufacturing today. 5. Whilst for the next few years Europe will have to import a part of the batteries required, in the medium-term Europe’s battery production capacity will likely be sufficient to support the vehicle production in Europe. A dozen of the currently planned lithium-ion battery cell production factories will take a couple of years come online, but there is likely to be enough battery supply by early/mid 2020s. If production schedules are met, from 2023 these factories will account for a total of at least 131 GWh of annual battery production capacity, which is estimated to be around 15% more than the demand from electric cars and vans. Accounting for stationary storage (less than 10% of the total) and electric heavy-duty vehicles, the supply and demand of Li-ion batteries appears to be balanced and there should be no shortage of batteries in the medium-term future in the EU. The current shortage of battery supply is the consequence of late investments as manufacturers failed to anticipate the shift to EVs and to secure the supply on time. As a result, up to 2023 OEMs may have to rely on battery cell imports from Asia. This report does not aim to predict the future – there is always an inherent uncertainty in estimating future manufacturing volumes and locations that can be subject to unexpected economic and geopolitical changes (e.g. Brexit). What it does show is that the EU car CO2 requirements are finally driving industry’s investment in emobility. The current forecast data is a sign that a rapid expansion of EVs is possible, that OEMs are already planning for it, and that the current favourable locations to conventional manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe can also benefit from new production opportunities.