Running discussion on SP, page-241

Hi All,

Lots of noise, *some* good reading here, all conjecture and speculation until we find out through official channels however.

Here’s my take:
Given we’re still in Suspension this, IMO, suggests one of two possibilities, which I’ll get on to. The suspension has bought AVZ (an indefinite amount of) time. To me, this means the announcement is much, much bigger than an update on drilling progress (and perhaps lab results). If that was all AVZ had to announce right now - we would have heard it this morning, together with a response regarding the so-called “bird-gate saga” IMO. Also, perhaps, AVZ want to provide a full week of trading – so delaying news until Monday could be a factor.

The two possibilities - IMO – Two Extremes:

Good (GREAT) news – a Joint Venture, Take Over or Bidding War is going on behind the scenes – obviously contractual negotiations will take some time to work through – will AVZ sell all, part, what role AVZ will play in a JV etc and if a TO, the price – each +0.10c costs the potential suitor approx. $220m.
If this is the case – TO – the news will hit anytime once signatures obtained – no strategic timing required. If JV – the news is more likely to be released strategically for maximum trading impact – Monday morning my guess.

Bad news – some legal review of AVZ’s response to the ASX – get the lawyers to review etc which could be taking some time.
If this is the case – IMO, this news will be strategically released on Friday, after trading closes. IMO – if we don’t hear anything by Friday evening, then we’re in for a treat!

As a holder (since August 2017 and avid reader of these forums prior) I’m biased towards the Good News, but trying to be objective. I enjoy understanding both positive/negative sides, as long as there a valid reason/justification.

As I’ve mentioned previously, most/all factors (too many to enumerate) to me suggest we’re witnessing a well-orchestrated, theatrical, ‘Ore-inspiring’ (pun intended) display, that has, for once, favoured retail holders that stayed true to AVZ and believed in the fundamentals. I have a lot of gratitude to those working on behalf of SH and the well-researched, informative posters here and elsewhere.

All IMO, DYOR caveats apply!

Cheers
MSN