AVZ (ASX) Running discussion on SP

Originally posted by msn81 ↑

Hi All,

Lots of noise, *some* good reading here, all conjecture and speculation until we find out through official channels however.

Here’s my take:
Given we’re still in Suspension this, IMO, suggests one of two possibilities, which I’ll get on to. The suspension has bought AVZ (an indefinite amount of) time. To me, this means the announcement is much, much bigger than an update on drilling progress (and perhaps lab results). If that was all AVZ had to announce right now - we would have heard it this morning, together with a response regarding the so-called “bird-gate saga” IMO. Also, perhaps, AVZ want to provide a full week of trading – so delaying news until Monday could be a factor.

The two possibilities - IMO – Two Extremes:

Good (GREAT) news – a Joint Venture, Take Over or Bidding War is going on behind the scenes – obviously contractual negotiations will take some time to work through – will AVZ sell all, part, what role AVZ will play in a JV etc and if a TO, the price – each +0.10c costs the potential suitor approx. $220m.
If this is the case – TO – the news will hit anytime once signatures obtained – no strategic timing required. If JV – the news is more likely to be released strategically for maximum trading impact – Monday morning my guess.

Bad news – some legal review of AVZ’s response to the ASX – get the lawyers to review etc which could be taking some time.
If this is the case – IMO, this news will be strategically released on Friday, after trading closes. IMO – if we don’t hear anything by Friday evening, then we’re in for a treat!

As a holder (since August 2017 and avid reader of these forums prior) I’m biased towards the Good News, but trying to be objective. I enjoy understanding both positive/negative sides, as long as there a valid reason/justification.

As I’ve mentioned previously, most/all factors (too many to enumerate) to me suggest we’re witnessing a well-orchestrated, theatrical, ‘Ore-inspiring’ (pun intended) display, that has, for once, favoured retail holders that stayed true to AVZ and believed in the fundamentals. I have a lot of gratitude to those working on behalf of SH and the well-researched, informative posters here and elsewhere.

All IMO, DYOR caveats apply!

Cheers
MSN

Expand

Further - For what it’s worth...
Suspension can last a long time – CMY has been in suspension since August ’17 for example, they don’t provide daily announcements updating the end date of the expected suspension period.

With a suspension an announcement can come at any time (8:30am – 7:30pm [8:30pm during AEDST – daylight savings] ASX trading days). What you have to do is be ready...

Trading resumes 10 minutes following a price sensitive announcement (but I believe orders can be loaded [re-loaded in the case of a suspension] during that 10 minute period). It does offer an element of surprise; there’s a scramble to digest the info and buy/sell accordingly, and those caught off-guard... well, put bluntly - miss out.

For all holders – Don’t worry - we’ve already got our seat reserved in the boat!

For all perspective Buyers – (In My Opinion only – not advice – but this is my strategy)...

Get your trading apps/platforms to notify you when there is a price sensitive announcement for AVZ (I know CommSec caters for this).

When the announcement hits read the headline – if you believe it is good load an order ASAP for the max you’re prepared to buy for. (It’s important to get your position in queue).

Fully digest the announcement as best as possible in 5/6 minutes.

Re-evaluate your buy order against the market – remember, upon open the over-lapping buys/sells get filled at the mid-price (indicative price generally shows this) – so if your buy price is above the indicative price, your order is likely to be filled cheaper (at indicative price).

Cancel order if bad news.

For all perspective Sellers - (In My Opinion only – not advice – but this is my strategy)...
As per buyers (except reverse on the sell price -if lower than indicative price your order will be filled for the higher indicative price).
But if the news is great, then you may wish to hold based on the buy side.

Again - All IMO, DYOR caveats apply!

Cheers
MSN