PLS got to mining within two years of their September 2016 DFS, and the key there was they essentially had their approvals and Offtakes in place at DFS time from recollection. And that is in WA where construction/production delays run supreme - I haven't seen a project of late in WA get to mining in its stated production start up assumption in a long time, ranging from iron ore through to LNG.
Transport routes here have been sorted by and large with the exception of a small section of road to the railhead (and that small section won't take long to build). If you have issues with this statement take it up with Ivanhoe, one of the world's biggest copper producers btw with interests also in nickel/zinc, who is exporting essentially through the same port as AVZ intends to and essentially got a similar thing here around government commitments etc etc and how it relate dto funding etc etc. So the key for AVZ remains remains transport costs, which I suspect will remain at the SS mark etc etc. See Post #:
43333084 and Post #:
43333374Taking your view to LTR, where do you see it in your graph btw - at best it is where AVZ is at now, so your comments also equally apply there (and how it relate sto SP, but be mindful you are still drilling - AVZ finished drilling ages ago so I'll leave it at that).
After DFS, AVZ is not in the orphan stage any longer, it is essentially on the uptick of that. The orphan stage essentially is after the euphoria of initial exploration results, and then it goes into a lull where the company does more exploration, undertakes more studies/METs to get the process flowsheet right on the way to DFS. As part of DFS expect to have Offtakes and this is where the delays can happen - if AVZ do not get Offtakes in place by end of this year then agree will not be in mining in two years as Offtakes are the key to getting the funding to build a mine (either through equity for Offtakes or a combination of this and bank lending). PLS had Offtakes from recollection at DFS, so this is the key here - i.e. I have moved from transport now as see that in place at time of mining in two years, so now Offtakes the key (after DFS), and the government support (SEC) means IMO that with Offtakes less than two is likely.
But ultimately this is neither here or there - the road to production does mean that the market can accommodate a new greenfields entrant at that time (been 2022 here). That is the key. By 2030 I see a number a new geenfields entrants in the market, as I do this side of 2025. Two years involves a supply gap caused by supply < demand been there to accommodate AVZ's entry. That is the other risk, demand, one completely prospective greenfields development control, but with the EV demand forecasts as I say plenty of room for new greenfields entrants.
All IMO
