Running discussion on SP, page-29046

I understand your point been:

1. Essentially equity for Offtake and/or
2. Prepayment, and/or
3. AVZ give out some of its stake for funding via a JV arrangement of some sort.

Hope I have assumed correctly??

All three options might not require bank lending btw, but for AVZ to maximise the benefit and hence limit dilution (albeit getting to mining will increase the SP anyway as EPS and P/E ratios take hold btw) requires contestability - options in buyers - or an ability for managment to stare down any inadequate first up proposed terms to Offtakes with Yibin.

Looking at the DFS, and obviously depends on the price and cost assumptions coming in when in production, in effect profit per year is estimated at US$200 million per year (or roughly A$285 million per year at a 70c exchange rate assumption in nominal terms). How that translates to EPS and P/E (5*EPS) or P/E (10* EPS) or P/E (15) is dependent on the number of shares on issue.

Obviously with further expansion plans EPS increase. So, for others my point is you can have dilution (i.e. pre payment, number 2, the least dilution btw) and still see SP way north of here in production, because that is what happens when you hit DFS targets, so saying this really for others that dilution to allow mining/production doesn't concern me provided it is not significant and they hit DFS targets in production. All miners on the ASX were essentially explorers at one stage.

How AVZ plays the upcoming game of cat and mouse a key IMO, whilst ensuring timelines to production are met, and obviously that means the growth trajectory of EVs and hence spodumene needs are not delayed.

Looking forward to this stage of the development cycle actually, as the road to mining is starting to appear more clearly through the mist caused by uncertainty and road blocks in the past (whether real or perceived or lengthened by not meeting timelines) been further lifted from the delivery of the DFS and and transport routes to market becoming clearer in the interim.

Some contestability in the market place (especially through a European Offtake forcing China's hand) will be a very very pleasant surprise btw, and to us SHs benefits.

Time for a nap.

All IMO

Agree

All IMO