AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

[ATTACH] Would appear the call of break of 6c would test the...

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    Would appear the call of break of 6c would test the 6.7c. Which it did.

    It now looks like an obvious retest of 5.9/6c as a support.
    Then sideways most likely between 6-6.7c

    AVZ weekly 16.JPG


    Weekly wise could be the start of something decent long term.
    MACD has switched green and stochastic cross.

    IMV looks more likely to weave it's way up past 6.7c towards the blue overhead trend.

    Finance or offtakes would blast it past 10c IMO. Post #:40459124 explains my view regarding statistical probability valuations. i.e. where companies are valued on their likelihood of achieving their NPV. And so MC is a reflection of the purported profit as a function of success.

    In laymans terms if your NPV is 1.8BN but you are valued at 180M market is pricing a 10% likelihood.
    i usually invest quite hard when i feel the balance is shifted in my favour.

    I often find the most risky stocks provide most opportunity as the market is more bearish than it should be and more bullish where it shouldn't be.

    What is positive is that with the current spodumene price at parity with AISC's of producers it means that if the price sustains these levels current market supply will go to the wall. IMV spod price can't stay this low for that long without taken supply off the market. Meaning that effectively right now is the lowest possible success likelihood of AVZ getting funding. meaning it only improves from here in an increased spodumene price and/or increased demand.

    IMHO i'm 50% confident there's something in the wind before end of September. The people that we're likely engaging with know that right now is as battered as the lithium market is even going to get so the upper hand shifts back towards the developers every month that passes.

    SF2TH
 
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