AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

On sovereign risk, and noting everyone seems to quote a few...

  1. 9,100 Posts.
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    I understand your point and have posted in the past in some stocks, but there comes a point where you don't have to post constantly (on virtually a constant daily basis) is my point, unless there is something specific to say. But that is other's call.

    AVZ has disclosed its METs and testing and assumptions, whilst some haven't, but ultimately the market decides at the end. Obviously PLS didn't do enough testing in its METs and therefore process flowsheet to underpin its previous DFS recovery assumption of 77.5%, and non-achievement of this recovery rate was IMO the largest contributor to some of its issues there IMO. PLS is seeking to address that, but time will tell how it goes, with more capex spend - Post #: 41417087

    So testing is a key. AVZ though has done this, so doesn't detract from my points that for AVZ SP and MC is now a function of Offtakes/Finance and the market believing and been convinced this will get to market this side of 2025. Nothing else matters is my point.


    On sovereign risk, and noting everyone seems to quote a few publications where sample size, since they are surveys, is relatively small for African countries btw. I would rate sovereign risk the same for Mali and DRC btw. Here is another survey - go to page 5 of 9 and Mali is stated to be 1 place above DRC. The irony of this report is have a look at respondents and the numbers chosen and some of the other rankings. Surveys themselves if they do not have a statistically significant sample will yield strange results: Post #: 43319251 and Post #: 43324190 Ultimately sovereign risk is in the discount rate, but sovereign risk is one element in a an investment decision - the other relates to quality and cost of extraction, noting what will drive EV uptake is ensuring the inputs into EVs are efficiently priced because if not then the rate of takeup slows.
    https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/annual-survey-of-mining-companies-2019.pdf

    In other words, whilst I understand what you are saying, my personal view is when you, say have, have one entity say at 120 on country risk and say another one at 140 I doubt the discount rate (and perception of sovereign risk) is going to be that different between the two as viewed by financiers. So financiers will decide between the two based on resource quality, potential for profit, payback period and who they have Offtakes with is my point.

    All IMO
 
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