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Daripper

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05/05/18

09:38

Post #: 32901892
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Originally posted by Dr_Manhattan ↑

I'll give it a shot. This graph shows the % lost since the mid-January highs (it was a time where most lithium companies reached their highs). So the smaller the graph, the better.

View attachment 1089220
So over the past month or so,
SYA, AVZ, AGY have deteriorated in SP.
AJM, TAW have remained about neutral.
PLS, ORE, GXY, KDR and MIN have improved.

MIN in particular is a mere 10% of its mid-Jan high and it seems in general, the closer to production companies are fairing better at this stage. The average for the group improved very slightly from 33% to 32% over the month.

Some of the reason for this overall retrace since Jan is likely due to the reduction in lithium carbonate prices in China.

View attachment 1089229

Both asianmetals.com and SMM show decreases in the Li2CO3 prices. SMM from a price of 16.3 RMB/100g to 14.1 today (13% drop since Jan). Note that hydroxide price fare different as do 6% spod concentrate. Additionally, prices outside China have risen, so its a complicated situation.

Things are further exasperated by the mining disputes/law issues in the DRC with 4CE also down 53% which is almost the same as AVZ (along with other DRC explorers).

So, IMO, I'd decompose the 50% AVZ drop into,
30% lithum sector pullback (prices retracing, oversupply fear, dow scares)
10% DRC local issues (mining laws, legal issues with Glencore)
10% Company related (trading halts, previous hype)

I believe the first will turn around eventually (EV sales are booming well above expectations), the second is will also be fine as mining is big revenue for the DRC and the last one has plenty of news coming. I remind myself that AJM (which I hold) is down about 30% from its high also.

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Nice work Dr, great peer comparison by yourself above and point form summary earlier by @TheAviator84 on thoughts by our MD.
Unfortunately I suspect this won’t quell the ignorant questions being fielded ATM by those who cannot determine investment strategy, question the strategy of others or are simply looking to add non informed comment in the quest of achieving their disruptive agenda.
I wonder how many are now holding profitable positions in AVZ, enjoying the benefits now being provided them?

AVZ Price at posting: 18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Running discussion on SP, page-3254

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