Lots of assertions in your post as per usual. Way too many
You might want to ask LNG producers, iron ore producers, even PLS/GXY and AJM how they financed their projects - it wasn't fixed pricing. And why not, throw in Ivanhoe and FMG (when both were start ups). You might ask a African plays why their prices are not fixed.
Financiers have to be convinced that when they are in production that the price will be higher - i.e it is not the price today but it is the price at production that determines funding or not. It has always been that way, and it is why you have a DFS. In terms of floor pricing given the AJM experience I doubt floor pricing will be considered by bankers - unless the buyer is not Chinese, hence the importance of Europe. Chinese do not honour floors btw based on AJM, i.e. read they are also unlikely to honour fixed prices either,and anyway most sell into China at index prices, meaning prices change depending on supply/demand conditions. It is supply/demand conditions that determine entry to market.
The PLL offtake is very small - it is called supply/demand conditions - and why small players can use fixed (i.e it is their way of getting to market, provide customers discounts to get cash flow to explore elsewhere. Large players with large resources ride the market.. Until demand is increasing, financiers will not provide funding, and in any funding can also come from an end customer needing the resource.
You need evidence of an impending supply shortage.
As I stated in AJM, cutting production by sending AJM broke, and then seeing spod prices increase by production cuts doesn't install financiers confidence to invest in greenfields projects. Financiers want evidence of demand growing leading to a supply shortage and that leading to price growth as the basis for funding greenfields developments. They concentrate on 'pay back' periods is my point to limit funding risk, and what they think they see as prices in first 5 years of production a key for them. Now, don't yabber oh must be fixed price, contracts are usually done on an index basis. Fixed pricing is not the norm in commodity contracts orelse commodity prices wouldn't fall or rise and show volatility - risks are always apparent.
My final post to you - you play stupid well, infact very well. I post, you still talk about today's price and make a number of assertions around how pricing is done in Africa in future, fixed versus floating. Maybe provide evidence btw because most prices received in Africa are floating (tied to index's).
1. Don't intend replying again, because bluntly you discard anything given to you. Like I said where do you see prices in 2023/24 or 2024/25 and why (i.e AVZ is likely to be in production that year). How do you read the supply/demand balance is the key. This is what financiers will concentrate on - not today - because production doesn't come onstream for years. And if you provide funding today, well that funding is only a commitment until construction starts is the point, hence why you can enter funding contracts today, but even projects that get FID and funding can be deffered (at no cost to the lender because drawdown happens when you start building). Either your ignorant on finance and ho it is provided or playing cute.
2. Why do you think AVZ will be exporting sulphate on day 1, when infact the DFS even shows otherwise? They will be exporting spodumene on day 1 with sulphate coming in later? How do you think that staged development affects capex, noting spodumene alone will be viable for AVZ at its DFS price, and even a price of US$500per tonne. But it is about demand.
Seriously you make assertions without evidence. You come across as having no idea how commodity markets operate but I doubt that as you have an agenda here obviously orelse you would be spreading the love on all lithim based greenfields stocks - people take commodity price risk everyday, as explained in my first post.
Maybe go post on LTR and all up and coming producers and yabber on about fixed pricing, when the trend is links to market index's - check out their capex spend as well. PLL is the outlier is my point, and not surprised there because it doesn't have a large resource.
And finally the Australian market is small - it is what happens in apartment heaven USA (New York, California)/Europe and China that decides EVs future LOL. And how many recharging stations are there are. And things grow through economies of scale orelse we would still be sitting on a horse and cart.
This is my final reply to you unless you can show some knowledge of commodity pricing and how projects are funded, and by that I mean how financiers deal with production start update to date of committing to funding (which can be years apart). I am off to enjoy the day.
All IMO
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