AVZ (ASX) Running discussion on SP

Originally posted by grassseeds ↑

AVZ need to get a wriggle on if they are to achieve their nominated construction timetable and to keep ahead of possible negative situations.

There are 3 main events that override all others.
1. Having mining and associated licenses in place is paramount. Until these are granted AVZ is still vulnerable to delays and deferment. This appears to be the key factor for AVZ.
2. and 3. These are somewhat dependent on each other. Finance to build the infrastructure will not be fully available until offtake agreements are in place to a level that satisfies the financiers. AVZ currently has little capital to accelerate preparatory work and extra capital will be required within a couple of months. Offtake agreements need to be completed within the next 4 to 6 weeks to keep the project timetable on schedule. If offtake agreements are in place finance will not be an issue.
Having a major mining company as a shareholder such as say Ivanhoe ( who are virtually next door ) i believe would also be beneficial. Selling off say 24% out of AVZ's possible 75% still leaves 51% and retains control.

The other periphery events such as the SEZ, tin offtakes etc are secondary. They can improve the economics of the project but are not the main game.

I suspect that the delays in finalising offtakes is mainly due to AVZ now being in a stronger negotiating position and AVZ trying to diversify offtake arrangements.

I hope that AVZ management are on top of all the possible outstanding scenarios. Operating in a difficult political and cultural environment by a small Australian company is no easy task. This is also compounded by the current pandemic restrictions.

I would not underestimate the Chinese influence in this region. I will be surprised if they do not endeavour to take over this project within the next 12 months. The size and quality of the deposits together with the long term growth potential are too big for them to ignore.

As a long term shareholder, I hope that the AVZ management are in a position to quickly tie up the loose ends so that shareholders are rewarded for their patience and prior to any possible rerating of stock markets around the world.

These comments are only my opinion and are not a recommendation to make any investment decision.

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Zero chance of China taking over AVZ while it remains an ASX listed company.
FIRB has already outlined it's position on China takeover of critical minerals.
The best that can happen for major Chinese companies especially with downstream processing capacity is for a long term off take agreement .
Hence Ganfeng move.
Yibin next ??
Between these 2 could tie up 60% production for the next 3 years and no problem with FIRB.
All Imo . ?