Running discussion on SP, page-3962

Hi Freehold,...
" Personally I don't think there is much risk of AVZ turning up a decent Maiden Jorc frankly.

Sometimes maiden jorcs do not meet expectations"

I agree with both parts of this comment, even though they seem to be saying the opposite.

I expect the maiden JORC here to be quite large, but nowhere near as large as many are expecting. Having hole after hole of 200-300m of spodumene intersections means the initial JORC has to be very large for the area it defines, but I do think that we will not have as many holes as necessary to become a huge initial JORC.

I'm assuming we have about 24-32 holes at the most included in the maiden JORC, because of the time taken to get the cores to lab and assayed. Assuming the 6 we are expecting come in this week, then another 6-10 by end of May, then another lot of 6-10 by mid June, would be around the limit for the competent person to be able to come up with a JORC to be released by the company by end of June.

The only reason I can see for the timeline the company keeps releasing for the maiden JORC by end of June has to be something contractual in our purchase of the Manono tenement, otherwise it doesn't make sense to me. Realistically we would like to see all the holes from the first 20,000m drilling included, but at current drill/assay rates that does not look possible.

We will have around half of the holes included in the maiden JORC, plus the next release of assays (holes 32-40?) around the same time.
Only when we get the next announcement with assays and current drilling will we be able to really forecast where the maiden JORC will be sizewise, and I'll resurrect this thread for our guesses...
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/as...s-jorc-timelines.4158220/page-2#post-32813617

For now I'll just leave it as @Freehold put it, a large maiden JORC but also smaller than many people's expectations.

IMO I assume the continued market pressure is because of lack of current assays plus market confusion about maiden JORC by end of June when the drilling will not be complete. Markets hate uncertainty, and we currently have it.
Unfortunately the managements of most junior explorers (probably should just say most companies!!) don't understand markets, while they might be excellent geologists and managers.