If were assuming the wedge comes back with the 43 percent...

If were assuming the wedge comes back with the 43 percent upside, VAT refunded, Tin @ $22,500 and $90 per tonne reduction in transport costs the results will be as per the table below.

But Nigel has stated the Pan African DFI's were willing to lend in the area of some 80% debt financing of the USD 550 MILLION = 440 MILLION

That leaves us with USD 110 MIL for equity.

If we assume $110,000,000 / $0.2 = 550,000,000 worth of shares, we can plug that into the EPS column and divide that into our average annual NPAT to receive our new worst case scenario EPS and P/E ratio (IMO, as Nigel said it would be done if needed at a higher share price).

(You guys can work out how many less shares would be on issue (in-turn pushing up the EPS) @ $0.3 or $0.4 if you just replace the highlighted $0.2 above.)

		With wedge results	Without wedge results
1	NPAT 75% to AVZ	$6,788,186,666.67	$4,502,188,633
2	Average annual NPAT	$242,435,238.09 (28 Years)	$225,109,432
3	EPS @ 3 Billion SOI	0.080	0.075
4	SP P/E 10	$0.80 USD = $1.04 AUD	$ 0.75 USD
5	SP P/E 15	$1.20 USD = $ 1.56 AUD	$ 1.125 USD
6	SP P/E 35 (The honey pot)	$2.80 USD = $ 3.64 AUD	$2.625 USD

So new EPS with 3.55 Bil shares on issue would be....

$242,435,238 / 3,550,000,000 = 0.0682916163380282

		With wedge results
1	NPAT 75% to AVZ	$6,788,186,666.67
2	Average annual NPAT	$242,435,238.09 (28 Years)
3	EPS @ 3.55 Billion SOI	0.068
4	SP P/E 10	$0.68 USD = $ 0.87 AUD
5	SP P/E 15	$1.02 USD = $ 1.31 AUD
6	SP P/E 35 (The honey pot)	$2.38 USD = $ 3.06 AUD

Now id say this is worst case scenario but could be wrong. Remembering Nigel did state equity component would be done at a higher share price, but also the equity component could be reduced if there is a product offtake prepayment agreement.

Its pretty obvious the equity component will be done at a higher share price as each box ticked pushes up the share price.

Thoughts scarpa?

Cheers

Miljew