I will be clear. I posted a while ago that large scale tin mining requires lithium mining to proceed here. I stated as a tin mine alone AVZ is marginal. It is the lithium mining that determines viability here, obviously as everything here is about spodumene and sulphate (with tin/tantulum/niobium essentially a credit or to be blunt a 'side show' to the main game). Tin mining is a credit to offset transport costs, and that is how it should be looked at.
My views on tin mining (not artisinal mining) are here - Post #:45170120and Post #:43553026(this latter post talks about tin cut off grades for stand alone open cut operations (not artisinal) as well.
If there is a delay to a long term tin offtake agreement, it is because lithium offtakes have to be signed IMO IMO, to provide the tin buyer some certainty that the mine will proceed to production. Can they sell tin on the spot market, yes they probably could because tin is a credit here and not the main game, but lithium will be sold under medium to long term contracts predominantly here in terms of the DFS configuartion that is because it is a prerequisite IMO to Offtakes (which NF has also indicated but not spelt out to stop some of the stuff that is alluded to on here and in twitter land). If I was enterring into a long term tin contract with AVZ I would want some confidence supply will be there, and that means getting the lithium mine up. I would be pleasantly surprised if a long term tin contract dropped before more lithium offtakes.
As a final point, there is no way on earth IMO IMO an explorer seeking to become a miner will be selling the 'main game' on the spot market. If tin is to be sold on the spot market it still means that lithium/sulphate needs to be locked under long term contracts anyway, in any event. Fundamentally, as I have stated here endlessly the order of things are Offtakes, funding, FID/Mining leases/approvals, construction, production. Some things can happen concurrently (approvals and offtakes and FID), but most production (i.e. I would say at least 80% plus) will need to locked under long term contracts to secure funding.
In terms of the AVZ timeline, construction needs to start end quarter 3 for AVZ's production target to arise/be met, meaning FID needs to be done end quarter 2.
In terms of the some of the comments prices need to rise before Offtakes are signed, my thoughts are long term contracts are generally not negotiated on a fixed price basis - more info in
Post #:49705729. They are negotiated with words such as 'price for spodumene (and probably sulphate) will be linked to movements in the hydroxide/carbonate price''. Even the latest Ganfeng Offtake has such words for the spodumene sales, meaning they have a 'natural trigger'to benefit from rising prices without having to wait for prices to rise. Here it is:
All IMO
