In life in general I like that old adage that goes along the lines of
"hope for the best but prepare for the worst"
At this point in time
my worst has long passed, however, as a minimum given the road we have traveled In the case of the average AVZ investor/punter, presently my view is that we are now at
low risk at not getting a positive financial result, probably for most investors, many are in that position already and some need the SP to go up by no more than say 50% higher to be in profit (as a guesstimate) that would be how I see things at this time and that includes even if some sort of cr or similar were to take place between now and FID.
So yes I get investors thinking 'crap to that' other lithium based companies be it producers and some still yet to turn a sod are in the money already and some in a big way! Probably 50% are looking flash and popping corks and the other 50% like us are yet to make it to the bottle shop.
The reasons and contributions for why we presently sit in the bottom 50% is open to conjecture at this point in time imv given the journey thus far, we have endured much speculation by many here and some of these hypothesis are more relevant depending on what time frame you use. Meaning is the SP '
presently' being suppressed due to speculation of a pending CR or is it say the top three plus maybe some stealth investors siding with them trying to run the SP to ground, maybe these investors want the whole pie, or maybe its as the trolls tell everyone (that they can ear bash) its to remote, to much SR, to hard to get to port, etc, etc, it could be a combination of these or not.
I believe that AVZ's top 20 even possibly top 40 SH (maybe more) have little doubt that this is going to be mined, but that doesn't stop some of these players trying to play funny buggers. What can they do (if it's happening) and for how long? Well I say the clocks ticking and they're running out of time (as I say if it's happening) so regardless of the cause for the poor SP performance yes they (who ever they might be) can hinder SP growth a bit but imv once we get to FID we will be seen in a different light by the broader market in general.
It goes without saying we have a lot of catching up (SP wise) to do with the best of the lithium companies on the asx, there 'could be' some more pain, however, the key is turning and the lock I believe will open in the not to distant future, where the SP runs and runs hard, that will be easily recognized by the fact that
everyone will realize that AVZ is the real deal and its going mining! that's what we are all waiting for aimo
SY