@JB1975
1. AVZ have at least 3 routes that have been defined to get product out of Africa/Manono East / West and South all through different countries. Whilst its is possible that any one route may be subject to disruption by man made or natural force disruption at 1 time I doubt that all 3 would be cut at once very often. Most mines usually only have 1 main route so AVZ is fortunate in this respect.
2. Most contracts will have a Force Majeure clause included that I "suspect" frees or delays them from obligation for a time period when an unexpected event disrupts production/delivery. But I am not mining lawyer so perhaps some else can comment here on typical contract conditions.
3. Similarly I am not a expert in insurance contracts for mining companies. However I suspect if the profit were big enough someone would insure it for a suitable sizable premium. If there is an opportunity for a insurance Co to make $$ at a acceptable risk to them then I expect they will take it. That said the debt provider may/will dictate that a insurance policy be put in place at least whilst the its 3rd party debt is outstanding. Nigel has mentioned an African consortium (DFI ) several times who appear to be at the front of the Finance Q. I expect that a established African based funding organization(s) is well aware of regional risks and will have a preferred insurer already in place.
4. In AVZ case I expect profit/free cash generated to be so large that the initial debt burden for mine/ concentrate plant etc will be repaid within 18mth to 2 year of production or sooner. However I also see that AVZ is so large and so important to the world Lithium supply that a series of overlapping leapfrogging expansion projects/phases for PLS/hydroxide/chemical production Etc. Stage 1 to Stage N will be developed continually expanding the production size and product for at least a decade. Again the extent to which they want to fund this early expansion with debt or cash is unclear. I would not be surprised that processing of 2mt / Annum turns into 10mt/annum (or more) in a few years after start up. Remember AVZ has +100yrs of resource in ground!. The biggest hard rock deposit (2nd highest grade) by a factor 5x or more assuming target resource of 1.5mt is proved.
5. There are many 100's of projects all over the world in 3rd world countries that routinely get successfully developed. I have never heard of a project not getting developed due soley to insurance issues. Not saying that it hasn't happened but Ive not heard of it as being the sole reason.
6. AVZ when in production will be a cash generating behemoth making vast some of the $ for All involved including the DRC Govt. I expect anything that valuable would command a certain degree of protection from the Govt/military's if the need arose. Basic policy is to protect what is valuable to the country. You must remember that there are several operating mines (Gold Tin Cobalt Copper Coltan etc ) in the lesser and greater Tanganyika region exporting internationally already and have been for many years. So this is not new. The region already is critically important to the Govt in a economic and $$ generating sense.
