Sure...
Share price where it is:-
1. Delays on rigs arriving on site. Due to Border Embargos, Xmas Travel restrictions and wet weather /poor road condition during wet season. Also due to mgmt Tardy reporting of it. 4 Rigs on site and now drilling around the clock. 1st rig started drilling on ann on 21 March See ASX ann.
2. Slow Drilling progress will overrun due date .. this have been postulated for some time starting around the end of Apr hence part of the reason for the re-rate down we have experienced lately.
3. Twitter Gate Debarcle - with ML posting up info and then being muzzled by mgmt. ASX Query. This now resolved ML has stopped tweeting
4. Management ann with reference to unproven target statement resulted in Std ASX Query. Now Resolved
5. A semi organised Mis- information campaign ongoing for at least 2 mths launched predominately from Twitter and via fake website. Regarding many things around exploration permits and access, exploration licences and access, transport redevelopment doubts, Infrastructure available, All have been adequately Rebutted or exposed as fake info or very poor research
6. Misinfo peddled that Key Holders were selling - Top 20/30 proved they were not and it was once again BS
7. Some Sov risk concerns with Govt (likely to be resolved with election next year) and Ebola out break 2000 miles away and WHO are pumping out vaccinations on mass for the 1st time early in an outbreak. Vaccinations late in a last outbreak record 100% efficacy record. It will pass DRC has had 8 or 10 outbreaks since 1970's all contained.
7. Others there are other lesser items but you get the picture
I don't think it will go any lower as Ive said today. But As Ive mentioned several times now if it does go lower i wont for long as we are sitting above an area of heavy support as seen on chart Ive over posted several times in last few days .
Catalyst - TA Wise
Chart wise it has been in downtrend for some time and looking very cheap now considering it peaked at 38c (now 15.) for the last three weeks there bears have really struggled to push it lower and I sense they may finally be exhausted (See my post in this thread earlier this evening). We have had a very insipid attempt to break it down below 15c today. At current price it is dipping its toes into hot a bath of support (see green support zones 1,2,3,& 4 on diagram ) and has bounced off this region twice already and it will again today IMO. All the loose apples have been well and truly been shaken off the tree it the hard core that remain. This chart I posted a few days ago below. Orange support gets strong as we descend. Hence why I think it will bounce up.
Catalysts for Share price Rebound - FA Wise
We are about halfway through a large 20,000m drilling program that thus far has returned many world record Lithium Peg intercepts 250-300m true width with High grade. Even tried to drill a water bore some distance from main drilling and that return a 70m Spod intersection??. I expect those great results to continue with drill results expected for many months. A second 20,000m drill program to be kicked off immediately after this one finishes. Carrierde l 'est bigger than current drilling on Roch Dure will be drilled in P2 .
We have Airguide contracted for a extended period to promote to Chinese.
This week we have had exceptional metallurgical results with 6.3% Lithium concentrate produced on a 1st pass (Above 4.5% is saleable). This has surpassed what PLS and TAW produced in their 1st metallurgical results
See Link below.
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33235917/single
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33231673/single
The infrastructure has been progress with the road construction in progress. See these links recent posts
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33281491/single
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33261533/single
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33275277/single
We have a maiden Jorc expected by the end of Jun (expect it to be big and high grade by ASX stds but a subset of Phase 1 drill holes + holes from last year) and I expect it to be followed up a few months thereafter by a couple of large upgrades. I think it will be the largest high grade Lithium deposit on the ASX by the end of the year if not much sooner. Typically Stocks run up on expectation of maiden Jorc about 6 weeks out IMHO we are within that window now.
We have several JV interested parties Chinese circling according to the MD see video below with some MOU signed. We have had site visit from some. Even a MD of multi billion Chinese company went to take a look We even had a mgmt paid Fin review article talking about I don't have link (behind paywall)
We have the sector Lithium ETF breaking down trend about 6 weeks ago and trending up.
We have Chinese sign deals left right and center tying up lithium supply. Interest remains very strong. Even Tesla signed a deal with SQM/KDR recently.
All in all I think its a compelling buy at this price.
Top end Estimate... If you followed my posting a all you would know I generally refrain form giving these. Ask me again When we have Jorc and JV partners tied up and Feasibility study done... I will say well north of here
I could on but that is enough for now...
