Hi Ericson
I appreciate your emotional tugging on what many here think is ideal.
More than half of AVZ T20 registry looks to be Chinese but whether they would vote same way is conjecture. Why would Yibin cede to Ganfeng, and Chenxin likewise? Ganfeng is starting up a battery business. Does CATL feel floofy about that? Supply chain dominance by anyone entity is not in anyone’s favour regardless of jurisdiction.
Further, in my estimate, the current Commonwealth Government of Australia literally handed AVZ a free pass to prohibit exactly what you’re hinging on, subjugation at the hands of Chinese interests especially connected to State influence. Why? AVZ Manono can expand to mirror current world production of SC6 = China supply chain control a threat. Congolese also recognize this with recent comments for Felix Tshisekedi — May I suggest don’t underestimate that policy being played out in Kinshasa - consider where Congolese elites lobbied prior to last election and who endorsed the result [Pompeo] and then almost everyone followed…it’s not a foreigner conclusion China is in control by becoming a JV partner. The political stars are not aligned for that.
Let me start by saying to others considering how things move or don’t and with FIRB precedent set, that, it is at Dathcom level ***(AVZ controls Dathcom I understand after Yibin set company restructuring as a condition for investment)*** not at AVZ.ax level that a JV would occur and I don’t see FIRB allowing associations to combine within AVZ registry to control or fashion the board. Take note Zijin *for example* appears to have stronger ties to PRC State than Yibin.
You chose Bacanora Tier 2/3 (clay) as example but ignored Talisons Tier 1 (Spod)?You could have mentioned FFX fate as well.
You’ve assumed only Chinese are unreliable or don’t respect but do you think a Western miner would also respect?
I believe no Major wants AVZ in the board controlling Manono. But guess what? A small miracle happened back in 2016….
You’ve also ignored what Ministerial Congolese wish for in your conspiracy.
I think i don’t need to list here for you and others all the events that *could have* meant AVZ does not have control and can expect control over the Manono project. The mining license is going ahead by all public indications; most recent a visit to identify surety with DFI funding.
So returning to your fears. While ‘we’ or many May prefer a western outfit, but as Joe Lowry recently said the risk is higher with an inexperienced partner. Show me Glencore’s expertise in lithium? Or Rio’s? or FMG’s? On the last one, Congolese are already being warned on not letting FMG monopolise control harnessing the Inga dam etc HEPPs. AVZ appears to be bringing stability and dignity to the Manono communities.
It’s also my view the world is more than wary of China grabbing tier one assets—and we can see AVZ has reserved supply for PLSO4 as it appears as a diversification strategy.
I would not be surprised if Manono becomes the key deposit for Europe by virtue of scale. And it’s controlled by AVZ and that’s an amazing fact after the last few years. Do we know how many times AVZ faced the jaws of Chinese ownership? CATL have tried says my HKTD
