@Revali, I can't be bothered explaining all the errors in this post from Reditt you copied here including the poster:
1. Not understanding where sulphate is produced in the production process, other companies also thinking sulphate, and how sulphate is then converted to either carbonate or hydroxide. Or how the process flowsheet works and how price of sulphate is also tied to costs of production.
2. The fact it omits tin (and probably tantulum as well).
3. The lack of understanding that sovereign risk is dealt with in the discount rate. In production, EPS and P/E ratios are not punished by location so P/E15 to P/E20 applies to SP regardless. The poster may want to look at Ivanhoe's SP in production and see whether that SP is based on P/E 7.5.
Anyway to understand the above, refer to these posts:
1. Duplicating DFS -
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2. Sulphate itself -
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and
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and the reasons why you might produce it is given in the bottom half of this post
3. Conversions -
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and
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4. Sovereign risk - well the question becomes why is not all the world's copper/nickel/rare earths/cobalt/graphite not produced in Canada, Australia and USA which are also keys to EVs and without these then EV forecasts become useless -
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. And obviously there is also the inconsistent argument around ESG yet everyone is happy buying a EV where the lithium chemicals and battery makeup are predominantly produced in that nice country with a fantastic human rights record called China and actually selling spodumene to that country too LOL (yes I am been sarcastic with my China comment). A case of out of mind out of sight for many posters when they yabber human rights and sovereign risk. Ultimately it is about risk, reward and payback periods. Where IMO sovereign risk plays a part is at the exploration stage as investors look at Australian plays, but getting to production you see African plays move quite quickly up in SP growth IMO IMO IMO. The mover here in SP is the market believing a production date will happen for AVZ and that means getting your mining licence, FID and funding. Starting construction will move the SP up quite a bit IMO. Pretty obvious this point when you look at SP growth of Australian explorers to that of AVZ as explorers before FID/funding approved.
5. Obviously the problem with AVZ to date is missed timelines which in the past IMO were too aggressive, and I said as such on here. To be frank, how could AVZ have been forecasting a 2021 start up date in the past when the likes of AJM and the Bald Hill mine went belly up, and a number of other mines, when the glut was evident, were put on care and maintenance. Now that there is a shortfall in demand projected and a large one at that now is the time to stick to your timelines, with as I posted in the past 2024 been the most likely date for AVZ to get to production if it gets its act together -
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. The other thing I would say, for a country seeking to develop the project the mining licence approval has been very slow IMO and it appears too me no quicker than what it would take to get a mining licence approved in WA. DRC govt need to pull its finger out before other projects go ahead of AVZ and make it to production before AVZ - and that would mean further delays. This is where risks are - not taking your market opportunity when gaps emerge.
6.
Mining is based on economics and profit, always has been but it is obvious too if you have two projects with similar profitability but one is located in a low sovereign risk jurisdiction and another in a high sovereign risk jurisdiction and the market has scope for only one of those projects the low sovereign risk one is preferred. But given growth forecasts for lithium the issue of sovereign risk is neither here or there because you need a crap load of new projects, and Australia cannot meet that demand, full stop.
You don't need to have the best grades to make a killing, just the ability to control costs so that you make decent profits
, and the market believing you will get to production - just look at PLL for that.
All IMO
