I'm not a fan of Eshmun but he said one thing that I think he is right about, to be aware of listening too much to high profile members. They are dangerous, especially if they change their minds. The sheep will follow and believe anything they say, and buy or sell on their say so. Add to that money corrupts, and if people are losing money, even the most seemingly virtuous can lose their halos and will find any way to stop the bleed.
So let us say this member who everyone thinks is God buys in the low 20's, and ouch a sell off comes. At the time he bought he is talking about how great the company is, and then there is a sell off, and spontaneously, just like that he is now talking down the company big time, finding anything to explain the SP decline, where beforehand these things were not an issue
to him.
Because of his high profile platform he scares the weak hands, and they sell like lemmings falling off a cliff. He even takes it one step further talking about how the price action is capitulative(a very dangerous word in the hands of someone of influence), and talks about how there will be a bottom price next week, and even maybe to place more doubt in the minds of holders that the company's SP may fall further and it may take a while for the company to get its act together. He also has a high profile TA mate who hangs around AVZ supporting his negativity, talking about the worst. Ask yourself why?
Anyway, upon reading the high profile members posts many more holders panic and sell, thinking the roof is about to fall in.
As much as this man will sound convincing to the naive he does not fool an old salt like myself. He leaves himself open by saying he bought in the low 20's and sold in the teens. Now, think to yourself, how does he recoup his losses? By changing his tune and talking AVZ down of course, and then the piece de resistance is when he says words to the affect
that when the SP has collapsed totally he will not be able to resist to buy more shares. Now that my friends is how to manipulate the market and get your money back!
Beware!
For the record, my humble opinion on the current state of events.
Fundamentals:
The fundamentals of AVZ are great, if not greater with each drill result.
Delays:
Regarding the delays. I've written before that just the bulk of the material to assay is so large that it is very understandable that there are delays because there is so much more material to process. These delays would also occur in Australia by the way!
Instead of having to transport, cut and pulp 1o metre intercepts into 1 metre lengths you have to process 300 metre intercepts not to mention doing 300 assays for lithium, and an extra 300 for tin. An intelligent investor would realise this practical delay was unavoidable, and realise this was a good problem to have because it demonstrates how big this resource is. People who would sell in this situation are those that have been conditioned like a reflex that delay means sell, which is really dumb when you think about it, but down-rampers play on the weaknesses of the gullible and stupid.
To see why it takes so long to process our results here is a chart comparison showing the size differences in resources between AVZ and other companies. You can see that AVZ really has a nice problem
Infrastructure
Holders have written to the company asking for updates to keep the market informed. Therefore last announcement we had an update. This was positive in my opinion, showing they were investigating the most cost effective routes to port as a preliminary to a feasibility study. This is standard.
Of course down-rampers seized on this:
'AVZ anticipates the freight costs to port may be a significant operational cost and warrants due consideration of options prior to progressing into the feasibility study stage.'
This statement is again normal process, and all it is really telling the market is that AVZ is being proactive looking for the most economical option of transport to put into its feasibility study, but of course down-rampers seize on anything to try and turn it into a negative for their own purposes.
The document also gave an update regarding the important Lubumbashi to Manono road showing that rehabilitation was progressing, that funding US$285 million had been committed and a timeline, 2019 unsealed and 2020 fully sealed. The point also is the road can be used before full completion, and will be much improved(eg. layering, drainage, upgraded bridges) and useable during the rehab period, and become a faster and faster route during the rehabilitation period. I say all this because the way down-rampers talk you would swear we never had a road and heavy mining equipment could not reach Manono. Just ask yourself how did the drill rigs get there???
Top 20
What was interesting was that during the worst of the well orchestrated social media campaign deliberately designed to damage AVZ, and scare holders to sell that none of the top holders were selling contrary to what others were screaming. I believe legal action should be taken against these saboteurs, who stated emphatically that particular top 20 holders were selling. They need to be made an example of.
TA
I don't subscribe to TA, and too many 'experts' are using it here to down-ramp subtly AVZ, under the guise of being TA specialists.
They talk about support zones way below the price that AVZ should be based on fundamentals, and the gullible lap it up, believing the TA analysis as gospel
, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of where they perceive AVZ's value to be
. They totally ignore the potential FA value of AVZ which is much, much higher than the current SP.
Meanwhile hungry manipulators/accumulators wait at these lower levels for the weak hands to sell off, who have been scared sheetless by the the TA experts, having put doubt in the holders minds.
AIMO
(20min delay)