It could be … many investors research to determine where they...

It could be … many investors research to determine where they see the SP in the future so as to buy in before that future arrives. The closer something comes to that “future” then the closer the SP comes to reflecting that future. “Buy the rumour, sell the fact”

So it’s possible that some extent of an ML is already factored into the SP … but also possible that some amount is not. But to assume that no amount of the SP reflects the likelihood (whatever the probability which is for each to determine their own risk level) of a future ML I think is erroneous.