Running discussion on SP, page-56302

If you're going to even use spot price, they definitely should not have amended their figures to weight average.

Those that understand how discounted free cash flow calc work will know that the first years of operation heavily skew the IRR and NPV. Essentially, the revenues in year 1-5 weight the NPV more than 5-10 so on and so forth.

So to pump the NPV even more, they made a weight average price which means they pushed the price 250-300usd/t higher in the first 5 years which is not what the roskill report for price actually even suggests.

Re-run the inputs using $1100-1200 in year 1-4 as prescribed and the NPV actually takes a significant haircut. Again all on the most bullish forecast from the analyst's and again on spot prices.

AVZ and other peers would be absolutely demolished if they used these types of figures. I'm actually surprised that a company considered the pinnacle of corporate governance and professionalism would produce this.

Much happier with my "super risky african projects" Using LoM SC6 in the low $700's and discount rates of 10%. This is why risk is relative.

SF2TH