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Bulldozers through the river, is a powerful image. A statement...

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staz024

3,528 Posts.

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18/11/21

10:27

Post #: 57664281
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Originally posted by Acgm: ↑

Good summary - thanks for the effort.

I did find it most interesting that Nigel stated a “long term” price for SC6.0 of around $1,200-$1,500/T would be reasonable. Seems to me to be in agreement with values seen recently in other DFS documents and of course in Roskill projections too. Looks like a good basis for what might be expressed in the coming updated DFS.

Only thing which concerns me on that front is with 80% of output already subject to longer term offtakes will that mean that the realised sale price won’t be as high as that $1200-$1500 amount? The answer of course would be known only within the offtake contracts which were of course laughed as not being made available (I recall the discussions of the past with others now producing where calls for “what do the offtake contracts show” were made - can’t see them being made available here either). However maybe we’ll get an idea of what is expected to be in those offtake agreements for 80% of production based on what is expressed as the anticipated sale price in the upcoming DFS (would probably be a bit difficult to express say a value much higher in the DFS than what is likely to be the realised amounts in what I assume are already settled pricing mechanisms in the offtake agreements).

Any idea what is meant by a “rising ceiling” that is “not convoluted” but is a “decreasing price as it rises”? I recognise the statement made that it is a pricing mechanism calculated on a LiOH and LiCO3 formula which has a floor price but the part about the offtakes for that 80% of product having a rising ceiling that “decreases as it rises” has me perplexed.

Who is “Tantalax” (as pronounced) which apparently has rights to the “dumps” and have been asked to sign off on an access agreement (presumably in favour of AVZ)? I heard that the “Tantalax” is not related to AVZ and I guess some negotiated access will be forthcoming but I’m curious as to who they are to be able to start projecting what possible impact resolving that access right could have - or would the mine plan just shift a bit to use other space for the dumps if they didn’t want to play ball?

I also found it interesting that they are considering doing some of the road works required to get construction equipment to site themselves (but need the relevant department approvals to do so). That’s the first I’ve heard of a possibility of AVZ funding those road works themselves. Of course it was also stated that they expect the collaboration agreement to mobilise some of that road work too so maybe that’s not something which will contribute too greatly (or at all maybe) to any pre construction capital works.

The term “Bailey Bridge” also caught my attention. Seems like a sensible way to construct new bridges in that location. Prefabricated truss based bridges brought to site often for “temporary use” - first used in WW2. Presumably they’ll either be sufficiently engineered to later take continual product loads, or be replaced with more permanent structures or other routes for product transport will be developed. Another option I guess would be to just use the same Bailey bridge design and continue to provide maintenance and section replacement as necessary over time (but under the collaboration agreement that might also be someone else’s concern). Actually I just listened again and think what they mean is use of Bailey bridges simply to get construction equipment to site and not be permanent long term trafficable routes (he mentioned using bulldozer to move through river, drive across crossing, tow other machinery across and then pick up the bulldozer to move to the next crossing. Sounds like a reasonable option to get machinery to site (not sure how it works for the continued delivery of materials required to be then delivered to site during construction of the plant but maybe there’s more to see yet). Seemed to me that Matt was fairly amused by the simplicity of that method of gaining site access.

On the tin front I like how a current idea is to help the current “illegal” artisanal miners on the land form a mining co-operative which becomes employed by AVZ to be the mining contractor for Sn extraction (seperate to the Sn in the spod ore), pay them “better than they are getting at the moment” and eventually build up that operation to provide further educational outcomes for those miners and “maybe mechanise that system in the future”. Does that then mean a group of locals will be mining Tin under a mining contract for AVZ without mechanised mining equipment? Probably likely to be the case until such time as sufficient of those locals gain qualification and experience to operate mechanised equipment for that mining (but could that open AVZ to critique regarding labour force conditions?). Hard to think through fully how the market could read such intention - but if not part of the Li -> spod -> “middling” -> LiOH proposals maybe it won’t matter as won’t need to be part of that operation information?

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Bulldozers through the river, is a powerful image. A statement of intent. AVZ are as keen as mustard to get this project off the ground.
Needs to be in marketing material - along with some good images of the previous mining operation.
The DRC and AVZ needs to get into the hearts and minds of investors - clean theme, preserving natural forests, hydro power, AVZ fund tick and community engagement.

As for the DRC forum - all eyes will be on Felix Tshisekedi - every leaders new best friend in Glasgow.

24th after lunch session - AVZ Manono release the chameleon - which needs to be on the next T-shirt run.

AVZ Price at posting: 58.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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