Did some back of the envelope calculations on Manono this afternoon:
Roche Dure pegmatite 130MT reserve, probable reserve 400MT.
NF stated likely long term SC6 price approx $1200USD/T (equates to approx $1657AUD/T).
Roche Dure - current value of reserve / probable reserve:
- Proved reserve of SC6: 130 000 000 x 1657 = $218 Billion AUD
- Probable reserve: 400 000 000 x 1657 = $662 Billion AUD
51% (currently) owned by AVZ
= $109 - 331 Billion AUD
Current Market Cap of AVZ $1.95 Billion
= UNDERVALUED
Note, this calculation doesn’t take into account:
- Second pegmatite at Manono - Carrière de L’Este - drilling results(4 holes), higher grade still at 2%, “size of CDL rivals Roche Dure“(words of NF)
- Possible purchase of 15% of Manono from DRC in future
- CAPEX
- NPV
- Value added products (eg PLS etc)
- Future lithium prices (Note: Pilbara Minerals received $2240USD per tonne for SC5.5% in September 2021 on BME, equates to approx $3094AUD)
I would be very surprised if AVZ is not worth over $10 in the coming couple of years
