'Long time holder here, I'm just a little scared that the market isn't going to react when the ML is granted. People are buying now because it's expected but once it's approved, I'm not sure we'll see a huge jump... my guess only, I will keep on holding till we reach VUL status.'
Hi @bostoncit et al,
Keep in mind that amongst other AVZ announcements scheduled for this quarter (including Hydroxide Study,FID etc.), there's also the much anticipated BFS which is scheduled to be released following the issuance of the prestigious ML.
I use the term 'prestigious' not only because of the sheer SCALE, GRADE, CONSISTENCY and PURITY of Manono, but AVZ's ML (to be awarded by the DRC govt.) allows it to help establish a new battery minerals province with the govt, DFIs and also technical partners like Bosch. The eagerly anticipated SEZ with expected tax & duty concessions is also scheduled to be finalised as part of the overall collaboration agreement with the DRC govt.
In terms of the BFS, it's a no brainer IMO that it will surprise the market to the upside (significant SP re-rate probable IMO), and IMO is very likely to dwarf the scale and profitability of pretty much every other Lithium project, including your aforementioned geothermal DLE project located in densely populated Germany, which to date is unproven (with its proprietary technology) at scale.
AVZ April 2020 DFS LT contract prices assumed;
SC6 = US$699/t,
Battery grade LCE ~ US$14,700/t (US$7355/t PLS)
Tin US$9955/t (ITA based estimate)
AVZ Q1 (est.) 2022 BFS - 4.5mtpa or 10mtpa? (current spot prices are pushing yet to be published LT contract prices for pending BFS north)
SC6 spot - US$3000/t !! (see below Platts Jan 14 assessment). Furthermore, Bank Of America analyst predicting up to $3900 this quarter via PLS' BMX auction.
99.5% Battery grade LCE spot ~ US$53,650/t (yuan equivalent pictured below & up 8000 on previous ATH from the day before!)
Tin 3 month futures US$42,900/t (a new ATH posted overnight)
Meanwhile, AVZ is currently trading at a massive 71% discount (A$1225/t discount) to its spodumene development peers (average) on an EV/t Li20 resource basis.
And even if AVZ's SP doubled to $1.50 (a reasonable target IMO post ML, FID & BFS) it would still trading be at a hefty (42%) discount (~A$727/t discount)
GLTA and have a great weekend.
Cheers
Elpha
p.s. expect a Tesla driven sector rally next week with Q4 earnings to be reported, and agree with Steven Mark Ryan that they will likely far exceed Wall Street current estimates & consensus.
