Running discussion on SP, page-63876

As much as I want it to happen, frankly I'd hate to see a ML announced while the market is having a meltdown. If it were announced today I doubt we'd see our previous highs. Hopefully normal programming will have resumed by the time the ML is announced.

Fundamentally nothing has changed. Lithium supply will remain in deficit for a decade, give or take a few years. Manono's quality spodumene will command a price premium, and when they move downstream to a PLS plant and beyond the story will only get better. The epic of Manono is just getting started. There is so much more to come.

Pure speculation, but I also wouldn't be surprised if, after the ML, a large player like Rio Tinto started sniffing around. But it could be anyone with deep pockets. Rio must be fairly crapping themselves with what's happening in Serbia (Jadar). AUD$3.3B on the line there. No chance they'll be in production there before 2027, if ever. That just leaves them with Rincon (carbonate). I think there will be some desperation around quality lithium assets by big players, possibly even auto manufacturers that don't quite understand the battery metals supply issues they'll face in spite of their grand production plans.

Carbonate is certainly doing well but hydroxide demand will increase significantly once the Tesla/Panasonic/LG ES etc. gigafactories start churning out high-nickel 4680s in significant numbers sometime in the next 12-24 months. AVZ may look at producing both chemicals assuming the demand is there, which it will be, although they may leave carbonate production for CATH/CATL since the "standard range" vehicles from Tesla (read LFP battery) appear to be coming from China for the foreseeable future.

So yeah, it's been a crap week wiping out about 6 weeks worth of gains for AVZ holders. It may also be a good opportunity for those who aren't too risk averse to top up before the ML drops, although the market could still go lower. I hope and expect it will be a very different picture in 6 weeks.

And for those of you who come here to bag AVZ with your myopic outlook, can you just STFU and move on please? You're polluting a useful forum. Honestly, some days I don't even come here because I can't be bothered sifting through your crap.