AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Running discussion on SP, page-658

  1. 1,141 Posts.
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    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5
    1
           
    2 Peer Comparison Resource and Market Cap MT
    $M
    %
     
    3   Resource size
    Market Cap
    Grade
     
    4 PLS
    156

    1390

    1.25%

     
    5 GXY
    11.62

    1238

    1.20%

     
    6 KDR
    189

    670

    1.50%

     
    7 AVZ target
    1200

    420

    1.50%

     
    Peer Comparison Resource and Market Cap
    AVZ MCap Resource.jpg
    Intercept results mainly 200m+ from number of early holes
    AVZ early drills.jpg
    Assumptions
    Excluded non hard rock resources eg GXY Brine
    Obviously different stages of development
    AVZ a conceptual target only

    Undervalued based on conceptual resource size not JORC yet
    Immense potential from early drilling remarkable strike rate
    Homogenous style deposit = predictable
    Conceptual target does not look unrealistic
    Open at depth potentially more resource than 1,200MT conceptual target
    Size matters high strategic potential
    Economies of scale
    Some companies may face risk of not enough easily minable resource to support/extend mine life
    Hence need to pursue further expansion drilling

    Avanco Ozminerals T/O offer 100%+ premium to last traded price, mark ups possible in current market
    Example of what holders could be face with overnight at some stage
    Similar value deal would put AVZ close to 40-50c bracket
    Accumulation trading pattern in recent months leave this type of outcome as a possibility
    KE and ML heavily invested IMO would look for best deal for holders
    Any potential take out will first need management/consultants on board
    Would help it get across the line with holders
    JV Mining a possibility for longer term value
    Whether under the current entity structure or a new vehicle who knows?

    Broader Macro 2018 on downtrend
    EV Batteries a sunrise industry set to boom further
    Broad macro environment could continue to temper sector for short-mid term
    Key to value is showing path to commercialise and taking steps to execute
    There are doubters and believers, each to their own. Those who believed in 2017 were rewarded greatly.
    Asset Masterpiece
    Needs Masterplan
    Last edited by Maxi II: 08/04/18
 
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