Running discussion on SP, page-70046

One of the good news I found is that, AVZ is actually over-sold.
I am dividing today’s decline into two parts:
- 15% control on Dathcom lost to Dathcomir
- 15% control on Dathcom lost to Zi Jin
i know it is not the final condition yet but the market (especially institutions) won’t buy this kind of uncertainty.
let’s say, AVZ lost in total 30% control of Dathcom.
what’s the real difference?
The 15% share from Dathcomir was meant to belong to AVZ but it lost. So 15% decline would be reasonable.
However, is the 15% share from Zi jin meant to belong to AVZ? No, in my opinion, AVZ has a higher priority to this 15% but if the other company offers a much higher price than AVZ, DRC would definitely sell this to others.
So the question here is, would and did Cominiere sell their 15% to Zi Jin with a lower price?
Consider how much effort DRC has put into this project (battery council, sign with Zambia, hosting business forum, getting debt from banks) I doubt it. Not to mention AVZ has the shareholder agreement to buy it.
Therefore, the maximum decline I would expect is roughly 15%+5~10%=20%~25%
currently, it is declined 33% from 1.18.
I would expect a re-bounce of about 8~13%
all in my opinion