AVZ (ASX) Running discussion on SP

hi, fellow rusted on AVZ investors, longs, shorts, traders and others,

I was speculating yesterday with another long term holder about what we thought might happen with the AVZ SP on open tomorrow and both of us came up with NO F'g IDEA!!!!

Too many unknown balls in the air still, I'm not even sure it will open tomorrow and personally I'm not overly concerned if it doesn't unless Nigel is ready or in a position to bring some meaty stuff to the table.

However, I thought in the interim I might just have a look at (cast) a graph with an unbiased view of what was going on in general just prior to nearly all lithium stocks (and many resource stocks for that matter) hitting ATH's early April and what had taken place right up until today.

Obviously given AVZ has been in a trading halt since the 11th of May the graph is incomplete as compared to our fellow much loved and unbiased lithium brothers, who often come over here to offer support even thou they have copped all the damage of Putin's war, High inflation concerns, Dow and other O/S markets being whacked/belted along with talk of recession etc which has been creating fear & panic in the market.

Firstly I would like to suggest that no matter what of the above plays out during this turbulent period, Lithium, EV, and battery storage IMV is as good as any commodity to be parked in 'if you decide to remain in the market', for no other reason than the GENIE can not be put back in the bottle. Global warming is here and it's now undeniable even for those very few dinosaurs that are yet to accept that fossil fuels will simply become less prevalent year on year which are no longer being heard or tolerated by the majority of the intelligent world. The reason that I reiterate and remind all of the above, is so that those newbies that are losing sleep over some downward movements in SP across the board should not waste too much time being overly stressed or anxious IMV, as lithium WILL recommence its forward march in due course.

Now the graph below covers just the last 3mths of movements by a handful of lithium companies, the graph is NOT intended to make any company look better or worse, it doesn't care if its a producer or intending on becoming a producer, it simply to show/indicate that most lithium co's topped out early April and the downturn and effect on each with the subsequent financial environment that we now and the past six weeks all find ourselves in.

There is one anomaly that I deliberately chose to introduce to the graph which I was looking at during the day to try and determine where AVZ might pop up when it comes back online and that was ADN, I added ADN being a RRE simply because it got belted at almost the exact time when many resource/mineral stocks were hitting new highs.

So although there are way too many unknown balls still in the air to be able to determine/project what will happen when AVZ opens, be it tomorrow or in a week or month's time for that matter, I find it really interesting that in ADN's case it fell off a cliff after what was perceived as a really negative announcement on the 6th of April but since then even with all the negative global news the stock has not fallen further, its remained in a very tight trading range ever since.

So I have concluded that a stock that was aprx double the price prior to getting belted but has NOT really been adversely affected further during this following period where an absolute flogging has been handed out to the market over the past 6 wks, tells me that the market has said in this case 'NO GET YOUR F'g PAWS OFF' this stock has now been oversold and refuses to get pushed lower no matter what macro event is thats taking place!

So given AVZ has gotten belted down from a buck thirty-six to just under eighty cents in the same time frame and it's virtually guaranteed its ML plus, plus, other goodies shortly, it's not a big stretch to see it holding ground and of course, if Nige comes out and announces one of those hey makers that I often dream about, such as................use your imagination then like some here have already suggested we could fry and barbeque some shorts in the process, no guarantees of course but we are sitting on the motherload of all high-quality lithium resources and also for those unaware that others (lowlifes) have also tried to wriggle in by deceit in the past and simply got their teeth kicked in.

See the graph below which indicates recent highs around the 5th of April for all lithium stocks and clearly indicates in the case of ADN (and undoubtedly there would be other cases) that it did not drop any further, even though the rest of the market got hit, proving that if you are already in over sold territory the market is sophisticated enough on occasion no matter what the circumstances to adjust for those circumstances. But sorry no guarantees can be given as there is just so many agendas in play at this time.

SY my apologies to many of those that got bored reading my hypothesis on what 'may happen when we open for trade' what can I say cod
I'm just a man of too many words I guess. enjoy your evening all.