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Timb89

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20/05/22

12:44

Post #: 61523461
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Originally posted by Scarpa: ↑

If AVZ are after perfect certainty on the Zijin 15% that raises their stake to 66% should they win, it will take time and probably will have more suspension time IMO. If they lose, then it is 51%.

The key too me is whether suspension and potential ongoing suspension will impact the timeline of the project and/ or grant of the ML because that is a bigger issue for me than the 15%. Confirmation that construction and project start time will not be impacted by potential ongoing suspension a key, as well as understanding how long this arbitration process is for. Too me, the legal issue should be seperate to the granting of a ML btw, and a ML, is a key to construction beginning and obviously production been possible within the stated timelines.

The other key question is whether this impacts CATH and the deal AVZ has with it, again another key project aspect when talking project timeframes. Further explanation is required here. How does this impact project funding should Ziljin win is also another matter. Before it was pretty obvious too me that project funding would come from AVZ and CATH, with government free carried on that spend through the SEZ. Now you would have to expect if Ziljin won it would need to stump up capex as well and that may cause delay IMO.

If the 15% doesn’t matter to getting a ML and the CATH deal then it doesn’t concern me if the suspension is lengthened. If it does that becomes a concern as it would imply the 2024 production commence Mt date previously stated may not happen.

So to be frank not that impressed with the extension, although understand the reasoning but had this now increased risk around timeline to production is a key. Only AVZ can answer these questions btw and these questions remain uncertain IMO.

All IMO

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Agree with all above. But given current market conditions, really not upset.

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Running discussion on SP, page-71564

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