Running discussion on SP, page-72488

Very hard to know but if you hold until there is a working mine pumping out 700-800ktpa, that is the equivalent of PLS (so 51% or 66% of PLS market cap should be what AVZ is worth, with whatever discount for operating in Africa you want to apply) but then there is the expansion scenarios, how far off are they? Effectively AVZ could build 2-3 PLS size operations on the 1.5b exploration target.... but that is probably soooo far away as to not be worth pricing in (at least not yet).

What is fairly certain is for this decade lithium is going for a premium price (right now sc6 spot prices $7000 per ton, AVZ will only get a fraction of that depending on the offtake agreements). At some point as more supply is available its likely the price will come back down to around $2000-$3000 a ton... weather that is in 2030, 2035, 2040.... it all depends on how much comes online and what demand there is for it, the higher the cost of lithium the less attractive it becomes as a technology to build around but without down stream operators pumping in capital so mines can get up, more supply wont come online... the good news is because of the size of the resource, AVZ can scale and will keep extending LOM, where as other operations are restricted by whats in the ground (currently AVZ are restricted by being able to get an operation started).

All IMO but its very hard to map that to actual $$ because its not producing and doesn't have a definite timeline (we could already be 8-12 months behind on start up for 2023).