Nice work Timb89I am sure you fully understand that short...

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flight996

478 Posts.

113

20/09/22

11:08

Post #: 63788742
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Originally posted by Timb89: ↑

Short Analysis
150,000,000 shares are currently short.

Tranche 1: To work out an average sell position. 80mil shorts occurred when the price was about $0.90.

Tranche 2: The next 50 mil was added at a price between $1.30 and $1.00. Will call this an average of $1.15

Tranche 1 from approx. Mid March:
Cost to sell = 80,000,000 x 0.9 = $72,0000,000
Cost to buy back at 0.78 = $62,400,000

Current Profit = $9,600,000

210 days from Mid March to Oct 10 (Suspension extension date)
Interest at 2% = $828,000
Interest at 8% = $3,300,000

Profit - Interest = $6,300,000 to $8,770,000

Tranche 2 from approx. April 1:
Cost to sell = 50,000,000 x 1.15 = $58,000,000
Cost to buy back at 0.78 = $39,000,000

Current Profit = $19,000,000

190 days from April to Oct 10 (Suspension extension date)
Interest at 2% = $550,000
Interest at 8% = $2,200,000

Profit - Interest = $18,450,000 to $16,8000,000

ConclusionI am absolutely guessing interest rates for shorting but there doesn't seem to be as much interest as I thought over this time period, especially for those who shorted in Tranche 2. Please correct me if I am wrong, but based on neutral/inconclusive news over the next few weeks, this doesn't strike me as a screaming sell for the shorters one we are out of suspension, especially the 50 mil shorts in Tranche 2.

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Nice work Timb89

I am sure you fully understand that short positions are generally held by institutions and funds that know the game, rather than amateurs. Their positions are often covered by holding longs at the same time. They will simply work the arbitrage, and trade out when it suits them. As you correctly conclude; there is no urgency to buy back.

Cheers
F

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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