IGO paying around $1,250 a tonne for ESS (136m for 105,000 JORC tonnes)
AVZ on this multiple is then 400mt @ 1.65% = 6,600,000 tonnes lithium @ $1,250 = 8.2b AUD equivalent - Discounting to 75% ownership = 6.1b
Yes further discount for CATL but there are also offsetting factors and one would need a far more detailed analysis to get to that level. This is just to paint a picture of what we are dealing with - 6.1b based on IGO/ESS Multiples...
I expect a number of posters wll callout the issues in the calc, yes i am aware of how simplistic this approach is but i am not here to explain a precise valuations but rather an approx.
No matter what, AVZ spent the money to firm up this resource - they delivered and its evident in the ministerial decree - the DRC is NOT going to tell the world this 100m is void because it couldnt be transferred until production, you cant get to production without the investment.
The whole thing is silly and it goes without doubt AVZ will have 75%, the only question is the northern tenants and the extra 15%
We wait on this knowing that since we went to trading halt, our stock as increased in significant value and today is 3x where we were when we went to halt, thats $2.10 and anyone selling to Deeland at $1.52 needs to think about this.
Shorters too have to think about how many minutes they wait before closing the position, anything longer than 10 minutes will cause a signficant liability and important to realise, you are infinety liable on the upside; at least until your stoploss or broker buys for you
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