Speculation/Theory1. July 6. CMOC and Geca has long been...

Speculation/Theory

1. July 6. CMOC and Geca has long been rumoured to be part of the new JV and have expressed interest in Congolese lithium. CATL also present in these discussions.



2. Also July 6. African Battery Metals change the date of their upcoming conference. Moving a conference 3 months before an event is no mean feat. With hotels and flights booked from many attendees, they would need a significant reason to do so. Old venue unavailable? More capacity required? Core announcement concerning a battery hub? What better place to make the latter.





3. It is of note that AVZ were the lead sponsor at this event, announced Sept 26 2022 with the original dates announced alongside with it. This was the one of the first posts they made with respect to the 2023 event tying AVZ directly to the event. Did they have any discussions with AVZ as to why they would make a good fit as lead sponsor? Was it just money? Refer back to the article in 1, take note of the phrasing "ambitious battery project" and "Manono".






4. Recently the two companies were in the headlines. Gecamines claiming CMOC owed them $7.6 billion USD.
A $1.5 Billion Hoard of Copper and Cobalt Is Piling Up in Congo - BNN Bloomberg
At the heart of the issue is state miner Gecamines’ claim that CMOC has been lying about its mineral reserves and owes the company $7.6 billion in royalties and interest.

5. July 19. CMOC and Gecamines came to an agreement, $7.6 billion USD to $0.8 billion USD reduction from the initial Gecamines claim. Quite the discount.
UPDATE 3-China's CMOC agrees to pay $800 million to end row with Congo's Gecamines | Reuters
“CMOC will further consolidate partnerships with Gecamines and expand co-operation in the new energy and other sectors,” it said. The firm is “committed to economic development and people’s welfare in Congo and making a greater contribution to co-operation between China and Congo,” it said.

6. Why would Gecamines give such a discount? Do they have any direct interest in the upstream battery sector? See the below article from June 27 2023. The quote is of note.
DR Congo sounds alarm about cobalt prospects | Financial Times (ft.com)
The new head of Gécamines, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s state mining company, said the country had missed the opportunity to leverage its dominance in the cobalt market and attract investment off the back of the metal vital for batteries in electric cars and electronics.

7. Furthermore, the CMOC and CATL relationship extends further than the meeting above.
China's CATL to take near 25% stake in CMOC | Reuters

8. Could the $6.6 billion USD saving that CMOC just made with Geca be used toward the purchase of something else?
6.6 billion USD minus DRC Tax (28%) = 4.8 billion USD
USD to AUD = 7 billion AUD
Divided by 3.5 billion shares on issue = $2 AUD/Share

This would align with Nigel comments at roadshows in regard to takeover needing to be above $1.50 ($2 is still to low IMO) and would put any (frivolous or otherwise) class action suits to bed. Hope this absolutely speculative post is off interest to others. I have no inside information concerning any of the above topics.