They would need to have a new mining licence decree issued first I believe. This impasse isnt now sat with CAMI, IMO, but with highers echelons of government. Before the surface rights can be calculated (again) by CAMI and a PE delivered for Dathcom, we need the Minister of Mines to reinvoke the cancelled decree or issue a new one. However this may be a challenge as the reasons she publicly released as the drivers for the decree's cancelation remain in play.
i still feel that all that is still workable, but that there needs to be a negotiated outcome agreed with the senior DRC leadership, pressured by the launch of ICSID and ICC cases. This however may be quite the challenge given everyone seemingly remains at loggerheads, and AVZ has shown willingness to let this drag on for the forseaable future whilst the arbitration efforts build.
This and other elements of our policy is undoubtedly resented by some DRC government officials, incluidng necessarily the guilty ones ilegally backing those entities trying to undermine the project, but unfortunately also probably some other associated government officials with decisionmakikg capacity. Nonetheless it seems to be the only realistic strategy for now, as given the last 1.5 yrs, it appears that without the arbitrations we have a near nil chance of pushing for a successful outcome, and eventually we would just be completely shunted aside with strategic justifications of the impasse in development of a nationally important resource.
I don't see a successful ICSID outcome if this should occur as a desirable outcome to strive for BTW. We'd likely never see a cent and these stresses would remaim for years. I do however hope ICSID brings everyone to the table, sans Zijin, who I hope get their dirty laundry aired in public during the upcoming ICC hearing (if it occurs) so effectively to the extent that they withdraw from their Manono effort either voluntarily or forcibly.
Wishful thinking perhaps, but I think once we highlight Xijins malfeasance at the ICC, the negotiating posture with DRC government pressured by ICSID may have a better chance of reaching a successful conclusion. This may take time though, as we've seen with the last Manono ICC case, getting an actual outcome will take some time (currently 9 months and counting, from conclusion of that said case, despite it apparently being an open-and-shut affair).
I think we'll all be here a while.
AVZ Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
